S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 8:00 PM on Wednesday
Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2702.25 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Unemployment Claims (222K vs. 230K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly down – Sydney was up; Shanghai was closed
European markets are mostly down – Spain is up
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Cotton
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.931%, down from February 21 close of 2.943%;
30-years is at 3.187%, down from 3.220%
2-years yield is at 2.258%, down from 2.266%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.655 down from 0.677
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2689.82, 2648.87 and 2637.08
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2728..00, 2747.75 and 2754.42.67
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2727.75, the high of 3:30 PM on February 21 and break below 2687.25, the low of 2:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2700.25 and the index closed at 2701.33 – a spread of about -1.00 points; futures closed at 2698.75 for the day; the fair value is +1.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.25; Dow by +73.00; and NASDAQ up by +37.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Down-Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side-Down
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on February 16 was a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance following -5.2% decline previous week
Last week’s pivot point=2703.03, R1=2783.61, R2=2835.00; S1=2651.64, S2=2571.06; R1 was breached;
An up week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A long red real body candle with upper shadow almost equal to real body but no lower shadow; the three-day evening star held its resistance near 61.8% retracement of f decline from all time highs
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from June 2016 lows is near 2534.86 and the index low on Friday 2532.69
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
Above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA but above 200-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke below the upper limit of the horizontal channel; found a support near a prior swing low; trending down since 12:00 PM on February 16
RSI-9 in a downtrend since 2:00 AM on February 16 after twice going above 70;
Below 20-bar EMA and at/above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Bouncing off the swing low near 2688.00, which is also the target of a break below a descending triangle
RSI is trending up after making a double bottom at 8:00 PM on February 21; approaching 65
Breaking above 50-bar EMA which is above 20-bar EMA
Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since midnight
The band contracted during Asian session and started to expand at 4:45 AM
RSI rising since 8:15 PM on February 21 after making a double bottom
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is moving up after making a divergence at 8:15 PM on February 21; oscillating above 80
Bias: Side-Up
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday February 21 in increased volume. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher. The indices were higher during the day but turned down at 2:00 PM and gave most of the gains for the day. The three-day evening star held its resistance. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 were the only indices that made three-day highs. NASDAQ did not form an evening star pattern.
