Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 10:30 PM on Tuesday
- Competing patterns in play – bullish inverse head-&-shoulder pattern on 30-minute chart and bearish engulfing on daily chart and an up-sloping flag on 30-minute chart; resistance to overcome between 2764.00 and 2770.00, i.e. between 50% and 61.8% retracement of bearish engulfing candle
- Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2745.25 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Prelim GDP ( 2.5% vs. 2.5% est. ) at 8:30 AM
- Chicago PMI (61.9 vs. 64.2 est. ) at 9:45 AM
- Pending Home Sales (-4.7% vs. 0.4% est. ) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were down
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., France and Italy are higher; Spain, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are lower
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Palladium
- Sugar
|
- NatGas
- Copper
- Platinum
- Coffee
- Cocoa
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.890% down from February 26 close of 2.908%;
- 30-years is at 3.147%, down from 3.174%
- 2-years yield is at 2.274%, up from 2.266%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.616 down from 0.642
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2722.62, 2713.74 and 2697.77
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2772.63, 2789.15 and 2796.15
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2754.75, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 2745.25, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2743.50 and the index closed at 2744.28 – a spread of about -0.75 points; futures closed at 2747.50 for the day; the fair value is -4.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.50; Dow by +77.00; and NASDAQ by +29.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 23 was a small green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow following a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance, which had followed a -5.2% decline previous week
- Last week’s pivot point=2730.94, R1=2764.12, R2=2780.93; S1=2714.13, S2=2680.95; no pivot levels were breached;
- An up week; two in a row, third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large bearish engulfing candle between 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of decline from February high
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Tuesday after falling back in the horizontal channel that it had broken to the upside on February 23;
- RSI-9 bouncing off 25 and not approaching 50
- At/below 20-bar EMA and at/above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a double top on Tuesday and achieved 261.8% extension target
- Forming an inverse head-&-shoulder pattern since 3:30 OM on Tuesday; approaching the neck line after forming the right shoulder; break above will have 100% extension target near 2770.50
- RSI trending up since 3:30 PM on Tuesday from a low of 25.6; rising above 50 after making a small knee
- At 50-bar EMA which is above 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with an up bias since midnight
- The band is mostly narrow since 1:30 AM
- RSI is between 40 and 65 since 11:45 PM on Tuesday; bouncing up from above 40 at 7:15 AM and nearing 65
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is bouncing from near 0 at 7:15 AM; above 70 after making a small knee at 8:15 AM
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday February 27, however, the volume was lower for Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average and higher for S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000. Major indices made bearish engulfing candlestick lines and the high for the day is likely to create resistance on any advance.
Up |
Down |
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Telecom
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