Odds are for a volatile day – watch for break above 2629.00 and below 2616.75 for clarity
Key economic data due
Non-Farm Employment Change (164K vs. 190K est.) at 8:30 AM
Average Hourly Earnings (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate (3.9% vs. 4.0% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were down – Tokyo was closed
European markets are mostly higher – France is lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/INR
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Gold
Silver
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee (unch.)
NatGas (unch.)
Copper
Platinum
Cotton
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.922%, down from May 3 close of 2.946%;
30-years is at 3.100%, down from 3.121%
2-years yield is at 2.481%, up from 2.477%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.441, down from 0.469
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2621.96, 2594.62 and 2586.27
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2637.14, 2660.87 and 2665.91
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2629.00, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2616.75, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2627.50 and the index closed at 2629.67 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2627.50 for the day; the fair value is +5.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.50; Dow by -101.00; and NASDAQ by -33.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Down
30-Min: Down-Side
15-Min: Down
6-Min: Side-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on April 27 was a doji with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
Last week’s pivot point=2655.38, R1=2698.08, R2=2726.26; S1=2627.20, S2=2584.50; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
A down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
An almost Dragonfly Doji candlestick line with very small upper shadow and long lower shadow; made a low of 2594.62, near the 20-day low of 2586.27 made on April 6
Broke below a symmetrical triangle that has been in formation since the all time high on January 26
Below 20-day EMA, which is below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Bounce from the low of 2591.25 on Amy 22636.25, at the downtrend line from April 18 high; price declining around the downtrend line
RSI-9 is mostly below 50 since 8:00 AM on April 30
At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Breaking bellow a horizontal trading range that was in effect since 1:00 PM on May 3
RSI moving around 50 with down bias; hasn’t broken above 65 for a while but broke below 40 many times
At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways from 7:30 PM to 8:15 AM following an exploded band during the NYSE session
The band was narrow from 7:30 PM to 8:15 AM; expanding to the downside
RSI fallen below 25 from just above 50 at 4:00 AM; mostly below 65 since 5:00 AM on May 2
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K below 20
Bias: Down
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices mostly declined on Thursday May 3 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.
Market declined at the open and reached multi-days low before turning around at 10:30 AM and then mostly moved higher and closing near the highs for the day.
