Odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways movement with increased volatility – watch for break above 2720.00 and below 2711.00 for clarity
No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly up – Sydney and Mumbai were down
European markets are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/INR
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Sugar
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 3.095%, down from May 17 close of 3.109%;
30-years is at 3.237%, up from 3.246%
2-years yield is at 2.549%, up from 2.569%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.546, up from 0.540
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2711.36, 2701.91 and 2693.17
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2722.97, 2731.96 and 2742.10
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2720.00, the low of 4:00 AM and break below 2711.00, the low of 2:00 PM on May 17
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2720.25 and the index closed at 2720.13 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2718.75 for the day; the fair value is +1..50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.00; Dow by -15.00; and NASDAQ by -34.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend resumed
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on May 11 was a small large green candlestick line with very small upper and lower shadows; breaking above a symmetrical triangle
Last week’s pivot point=2705.32, R1=2755.32, R2=2782.92; S1=2677.66, S2=2627.60; R1 pivot levels was breached;
An up week; third in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in breaking above it
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A harami doji with almost equal sized upper and lower shadows
Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend resumes
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Moving sideways since 12:00 PM on May 16; signs of breaking down below the narrow horizontal trading range
broken above the downtrend line from May 14 high but still below the high
Uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 3 in steps; higher highs and higher lows; within a resistance zone around 2720.00 level
RSI-9 moving between 40 and 65 since 8:00 PM on May 15; near 40
At/below a flat 20-bar EMA, which is above flat EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving up since 2:00 PM on May 15; broken above a downtrend line
Broken below a symmetrical triangle at 8:00 AM; 100% extension target is near 2700.00; resistance at 2711.00
RSI moving between 40 and 65 since 7:00 PM on May 15; breaking below 40 at 8:00 AM
Below 20-bar EMA, which is at/above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:30 PM on May 16
The band narrowed during Asian session; expanding since 3:00 AM
RSI mostly moved between 65 and around 40; breaking below 40at 8:00 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing above %D above near zero
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices were mixed on Thursday May 17 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite declined and Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index advanced. The volume was lower for Russell 200 and DJT. Most indices made a doji like candlestick except for Russell 200 and DJT.
