Odds are for a down day with increased volatility – watch for break above 2724.00 for change of fortune
Key economic data due:
Durable Goods (-1.7% vs. -1.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
Core Durable Goods (0.9% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sydney and Seoul were down; Tokyo and Mumbai were up
European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., France, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up; Spain and Italy are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/INR
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Cotton
Crude Oil
Platinum
Coffee
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.950%, down from May 24 close of 2.981%;
30-years is at 3.097%, down from 3.131%
2-years yield is at 2.556%, down from 2.591%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.450, down from 0.453
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2724.73, 2707.38 and 2701.91
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2730.42, 2737.78 and 2742.24
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2724.00, the high of 8:15 AM and break below 2714.75, the low of 11:30 AM on May 24
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2727.00 and the index closed at 2727.76 – a spread of about -0.75 points; futures closed at 2727.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.75; Dow by -54.00; and NASDAQ by -0.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend resumed
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Up-Side
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on May 18 was a small red candlestick line with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow just above the real body of previous week; breaking above a symmetrical triangle
Last week’s pivot point=2718.99, R1=2736.08, R2=2759.18; S1=2695.89, S2=2678.80; No pivot levels were breached;
A down week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
A symmetrical triangle pattern is in the process of completion; price in breaking above it
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A dragonfly doji in the middle of a trading range; tested the low of Thursday
Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend resumes
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Declining sharply since 7:00 AM;
Back at near the middle of a horizontal channel following a sharp decline mid-day on May 24 from the same levels during the pre-NYSE session
Uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 3 in steps; higher highs and higher lows;
RSI-9 moved below 20 from above 70 at 9:30 AM on May 22; at 50 after nearing 65
Below 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving lower since 5:00 AM after making a triple top around 2733.00 level
RSI falling from a high of 67.27 at 9:30 PM to near 40
Below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping up since 6:30 PM;
The band narrowed from 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM; then expanded with price hugging the upper limit till 1:45 PM; band is again expanding since 6:45 AM with price hugging the lower limit
RSI mostly declining from 9:45 PM; a bounce during Asian/European session fizzled at 6:30 AM just above 50; fallen below 20
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K declining; below 20
Bias: Up-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday May 24. The volume was mostly higher. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher and the volume on Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 was lower. The indices open near the high for the day and then sharply decline within first half of trading. After mid-morning, the indices gradually rise and recovered most of the losses for the day. DJT opened near the lows and closed near the highs..
