S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 10:00 AM on June 14
Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2782.25 for change of fortune
Key economic data due:
Empire State Manufacturing Index (25.0 vs. 19.1 est.) at 8:30 AM
Capacity Utilization Rate (77.9% vs 78.1% est.) at 9:15 AM
Industrial Production (-0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 9:15 AM
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (99.3 vs. 98.5 est.) AT 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul were down; Tokyo, Sydney and Mumbai were up
European markets are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/INR
Dollar index
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Sugar
Cocoa
Crude Oil
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.906%, up from June 14 close of 2.946%;
30-years is at 3.028%, down from 3.067%
2-years yield is at 2.541%, up from 2.566%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.365, down from 0.380
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2774.65, 2771.78 and 2760.16
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2785.01, 2790.21 and 2801.90
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2782.25, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2772.00, the low of 6:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2788.00 and the index closed at 2782.49 – a spread of about +5.50 points; futures closed at 2788.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -16.50; Dow by -202.00; and NASDAQ by -41.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Down
15-Min: Down
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on June 8 was large green candle that s breaking away from past few weeks congestion zone
Last week’s pivot point=2766.15, R1=2792.78, R2=2806.54; S1=2752.39, S2=2725.76; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A small harami within a large red candle with small upper and lower shadows
Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13; made a lower high
RSI-9 is declining; below 40
Below 20-bar EMA, which is at EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving down in steps since 11:30 AM on June 13; lower highs and lower lows
RSI-9 moving down in steps since 9:30 AM on June 14; near 30
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 2:45 AM
The band expanding since 2:45 AM
RSI is mostly below 50 since 10:45 AM on June 14
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed below %D above 80 at 7:30 AM
Bias: Down
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher within in a narrow range on Thursday June 14. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed down. The volume was mostly lower except for DJIA.
