Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2727.50 for change of fortune
Key economic data due:
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (177K vs. 190K est.) at 8:15 AM
Unemployment Claims (231K vs 225K) at 8:30 AM
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (est. 58.3) at 10:00 AM
FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney was up
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/INR
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Palladium
Cocoa
Copper
Platinum
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.852%, up from July 3 close of 2.831%;
30-years is at 2.974%, up from 2.838%
2-years yield is at 2.520%, up from 2.516%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.303, down from 0.305
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2711.16, 2702.71 and 2698.91
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2736.58, 2743.26 and 2764.04
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2735.75, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2723.00, the low of 4:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 1:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2716.25 and the index closed at 2713.22 – a spread of about +3.00 points; futures closed at 2713.25 for the day; the fair value is +3.00
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +22.00; Dow by +193.00; and NASDAQ by +68.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend under pressure
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side-Up
6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on June 29 was a red candle with almost no upper shadow and longer lower shadow
Last week’s pivot point=2718.82, R1=2745.65, R2=2772.92; S1=2691.54, S2=2664.72; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached;
A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend resumed
Daily
An almost dark cloud cover candle; opened with a gap up that was also the high for the day;
%K crossed below %D
Below 50-day EMA and 20-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Moving sideways since 8:00 AM on June 25
Price turned down from the upper limit of a horizontal channel but the decline stopped near the middle of the range and is again approaching the upper limit
Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows; a break above 2748.00 will break this sequence
RSI-9 above 65 after bouncing off 40 at 10:00 PM on July 4
Above 20-bar EMA, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Just above the middle of a horizontal trading range in effect since 9:30 AM on June 25
RSI-9 rising since 10:00 PM on July 3 from a low of 36.11 and is above 65
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 3:00 AM
The band was narrow, and moved sideways, on Wednesday as the NYSE was closed
Major U.S. indices closed mostly down on Tuesday July 3 on a shortened trading day due to Independence Day. Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite closed higher. Most indices made dark cloud cover candle.
