Morning Notes – Friday July 6, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 2:00 AM from a high of 2747.50; near a support level at 2732.00
  • Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2732.00 for change of fortune
  • Key economic data due:
    • Non-Farm Employment Change (est. 195 K) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Rate (est. 3.8% ) at 8:30 AM
    • Average Hourly Earnings (est. 0.3% ) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed up
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/INR
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.829%, down from July 5 close of 2.834%;
    • 30-years is at 2.943%, down from 2.947%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.520%, up from 2.516%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.276, down from 0.287

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2724.14, 2711.16 and 2702.71
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2737.83, 2743.26 and 2764.04
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2741.00, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2732.75, the low of 7:30 PM on July 5

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2739.00 and the index closed at 2736.61 – a spread of about +2.25 points; futures closed at 2738.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.00; Dow by -66.00; and NASDAQ by -9.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend under pressure
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Side-Down
  • 6-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 29 was a red candle with almost no upper shadow and longer lower shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point=2718.82, R1=2745.65, R2=2772.92; S1=2691.54, S2=2664.72; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached;
  • A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; closed above the high on Tuesday
  • %K crossed above %D
  • At 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways since 8:00 AM on June 25; at the upper limit of a horizontal channel; above an uptrend line since 2:00 AM on July 2
  • Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows; a break above 2748.00 will break this sequence
  • RSI-9 above 50 since midnight July 5
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Retracing from the upper limit of a horizontal trading range near 2747.50 at :00 AM on July 6
  • RSI-9 mostly above 40 since 10:00 PM on July 3; fallen back to 40 from a high of 69.04 at 1:30 AM
  • Below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 2:00 AM
  • The band was narrow during early Asian session; expanding since 00:30 AM
  • RSI is declining since 1:45 AM from a high of 68.11; below 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D from a high of 50 and moving down
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed up on Thursday July 5. Many also regained most of the loss suffered on Tuesday. Volume was higher.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Consumer Discretionary
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate
  10. Telecom
  1. Energy