Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving up from a low of 2813.50 since 6:45 AM- Odds are for an up day with high volatility – watch for break above 2821.25 and below 2813.50 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (219K vs. 186K est.) at 8:15 AM
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 59.4) at 10:00 AM
- FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate at 2:00 PM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Seoul were up
- European markets are lower – Switzerland is closed
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.999%, up from July 31 close of 2.964%;
- 30-years is at 3.124%, up from 3.083%
- 2-years yield is at 2.682%, down from 2.686%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.317, up from 0.278
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2813.25, 2808.06 and 2798.11
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2824.46, 2833.26 and 2843.17
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2821.50, the high of 2:00 AM and break below 2813.00, the low of 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2817.00 and the index closed at 2816.29 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2817.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.25; Dow down by -27.00; and NASDAQ up by +17.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on July 20 was a green candle that broke above a doji candle of previous week; the real body smaller than the upper shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2820.66, R1=2846.19, R2=2873.55; S1=2793.30, S2=2767.77; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached;
- A fourth up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A green harami candle with no lower shadow and long upper shadow that broke above Monday’s high
- %K is below %D after making a bearish divergence
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Downtrend since July 25 2:00 PM high of 2849.50; broke below an upsloping flag at 8:00 AM on July 27; broke above a downtrend line on July 31
- RSI-9 moving down since 12:00 PM on July 31 from a high of 70.92; rising since 4:00 AM from a low of 46.6
- At/below 20-bar EMA and EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways since 11:30 AM on July 31
- RSI-9 mostly between 40 and 65 since since 4:30 PM on July 30
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 11:45 PM on July 31
- The band was narrowed during early Asian session; expanding since 2:00 AM
- RSI mostly between 40 and 65 since 4:30 PM on July 30; rising since 5:45 from just below 40; near 65
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing below %D above 90 Bias: Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday July 31. The volume was higher for most except for NASDAQ Composite. NASAQ is still lagging. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average were the best performing indices on Tuesday.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Industrials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Energy
- Finance
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday July 31. The volume was higher for most except for NASDAQ Composite. NASAQ is still lagging. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average were the best performing indices on Tuesday.
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