Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower
- Odds are for a down day with high volatility – watch for break above 2798.75 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Unemployment Claims (218K vs. 220K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed lower
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
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- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cocoa
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- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Cotton
- Coffee
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- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.997%, down from August 1 close of 3.003%;
- 30-years is at 3.135%, up from 3.127%
- 2-years yield is at 2.674%, down from 2.682%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.323, up from 0.321
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2805.85, 2798.11 and 2795.14
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2816.94, 2825.83 and 2833.26
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2798.75, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2792.50, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2813.50 and the index closed at 2813.36 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2810.75 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -12.50; Dow by -148.00; and NASDAQ by -48.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Side-Down
- 30-Min: Side-Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on July 20 was a green candle that broke above a doji candle of previous week; the real body smaller than the upper shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2820.66, R1=2846.19, R2=2873.55; S1=2793.30, S2=2767.77; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached;
- A fourth up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A red spinning top with small upper and lower shadows
- %K is below %D after making a bearish divergence
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Downtrend since July 25 2:00 PM high of 2849.50;
- RSI-9 moving down since 12:00 PM on July 31 from a high of 70.92; just below 30
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side-Down
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a horizontal channel 1t 11:30 PM on August 1; the 100% extension target near 2796.00 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 2788.00
- RSI-9 trending down from a high of 61.81 at 10:30 AM on August 1; rising since 6:30 from a low of 20.17
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side-Down
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 9:30 PM on August 1
- The band expanding since 11:30 PM; price moved along the lower band till 6:45 AM; now at the mid-level;
- RSI mostly between 40 and 20 from 11:15 PM to 8:15 AM; rising above 40 but still below 50
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing below %D from above 90 at 8:45 AM
- Bias: Down
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Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday August 1. NASDAQ Composite was up. The volume was lower.
Up |
Down |
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
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- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance (unch.)
- Utility
- Telecom
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