Declined from a high of 2836.00 at 7:30 AM to near previous close of 2828.50
Odds are for a sideways to down day with high volatility – watch for break above 2836.00 and below 2827.00 for clarity
Key economic data due:
Non-Farm Employment Change (157K vs. 191K est.) at 8:30 AM
Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate (3.9% vs. 3.9% est.) at 8:30 AM
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (est. 58.6) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Sydney closed down; Tokyo, Mumbai and Seoul closed up
European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is down
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/INR
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Sugar
Coffee
Crude Oil
Palladium
Cotton
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.971%, down from August 2 close of 2.986%;
30-years is at 3.104%, up from 3.120%
2-years yield is at 2.674%, down from 2.682%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.309, down from 0.320
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2824.09, 2805.85 and 2798.11
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2829.91, 2833.26 and 2848.03
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2832.50, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2827.50, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2827.00 and the index closed at 2827.22 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2828.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.25; Dow down by -19.00; and NASDAQ up by +3.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on July 20 was a green candle that broke above a doji candle of previous week; the real body smaller than the upper shadow
Last week’s pivot point=2820.66, R1=2846.19, R2=2873.55; S1=2793.30, S2=2767.77; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached;
A fourth up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend resumed
Daily
A large bullish engulfing candle that close above previous three days’ high
%K is crossing above %D
Bouncing off 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Rising from a low of 2791.00 at 6:00 AM on August 2, which is near the lows of July 22; at a resistance level near 2833.25, which acted as a support earlier
RSI-9 bounced up from near 20 at 4:00 AM on August 2 to above 65 by 12:00 PM on August 2, moving along 65 since then
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving sideways since 3:30 PM on August 2 near a resistance level
RSI-9 moved above 65 from 11:00 AM onto 11:00 PM on August 2; breaking below 65 at 8:00 AM from a high of 76.47 at 7:00 AM
At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sideways since 6:00 PM on August 2
The band contracted from 9:30 PM to 5:45; expanding since then; price first moved along the upper band; now at the mid-level;
RSI mostly between 40 and 20 from 8:15 AM on August 2
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D from above 90 at 7:30 AM after making a bearish divergence
Bias:Side
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday August 2. Dow Jones Industrial Average was the lone exception. The volume was mixed. DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. The indices gapped down at the open and made day’s low in the first half hour of trading. After that indices gradually advanced and closed near the highs for the day.
