Odds are for a sideways to down day; watch for break above 2898.25 and below 2892.00 for clarity
Key economic data due:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 57.6) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Seoul and Singapore were up; Tokyo, Sydney and Mumbai were down
European markets are mostly down – Italy is up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/INR
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
Sugar
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.886%, up from August 31 close of 2.853%;
30-years is at 3.057%, up from 3.010%
2-years yield is at 2.641%, up from 2.633%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.245, up from 0.220
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2892.02, 2884.69 and 2875.72
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2906.32, 2912.26 and 2916.50
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2898.25, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2892.00, the low of 7:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2901.25 and the index closed at 2901.52 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2902.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.50; Dow by -72.00; and NASDAQ by -22.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side-Down
15-Min: Side-Down
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on August 24 was a green candle with almost no lower shadow and that closed near the middle of week’s range; gapped up at the open on Monday and made all time highs
Last week’s pivot point=2900.90, R1=2917.12, R2=2932.71; S1=2885.31, S2=2869.09; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached;
A second up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A red spinning top candle, almost a doji with real body near the close or previous day
%K is below %D after making bearish divergence
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Declining from a high of 2917.50 at 2:00 PM on August 29; near a support/congestion level at 2894.00; near the lower bound of horizontal channel emerging since 4:00 AM on August 28
RSI-9 made a bearish divergence at 10:00 AM on August 29; in a downtrend since 8:00 PM on August 27; mostly below 40 since 2:00 PM on August 30
Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below 20-bar EMA
Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke below a double top at 6:30 AM; bounced off from 28901.75, which is near 100% extension target and a support zone
RSI-9 moved below 30 from a high of 63.77 at 3:00 AM
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping down since 5:15 AM
The band is expanding since 3:15 with price mostly hugging the lower band
RSI dropped below 25 at 7:30 AM from a high of 70.47 at 3:00 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D after making a bullish divergence at 7:30 AM below 20
Bias: Side-Down
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday August 31. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Transports and NYSE Composite closed down. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 200 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed up. Volume was mixed too. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume.
For the week, major U.S. indices closed up in mostly higher volume. Russell 2000 traded in less volume during the week. Three S&P sectors – Consumer Staples, Energy and utility – were down for the week. Europe was down for the week and Asia was mostly up, only Shanghai was down.
