Morning Notes – Friday September 21, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher to little changed; declining since 4:00 AM high of 2945.50
  • Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2934.25 for change of fortune
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai was down
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil (unch.)
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 3.076%, up from September 20 close of 3.064%;
    • 30-years is at 3.211%, up from 3.197%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.821%, up from 2.812%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.256, up from 0.266

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2929.11, 2919.73 and 2907.98
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2934.80, 2937.12 and 2943.50
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2945.50, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 2934.25, the low of 12:30 PM on September 20

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2936.75 and the index closed at 2930.75 – a spread of about +6.00 points; futures closed at 2939.50 for the day; the fair value is -2.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down -1.00; Dow up by +12.00; and NASDAQ down by -2.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Up-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 14 was a green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; closed above previous week’s high
  • Last week’s pivot point=2893.35, R1=2919.93 R2=2934.87; S1=2878.41, S2=2851.83; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week following a down week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A green candle that gapped up at the open and did not close the gap; small upper shadow and no lower shadow; all time intra-day and closing highs
  • %K above %D; above 90
  • Above 20-day EMA, above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving higher since 8:00 AM on September 11 in steps;
  • Broke above a horizontal channel – more like a cup-with-handle pattern – at 6:00 AM on September 20; the height of channel is 49.50 points and the 61.8% extension target near 2948.00 was approached during Asian session; the 100% extension target is near 2967.00
  • RSI-9 near 75 after reaching a high of 90 at 2:00 AM
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving higher after breaking above a sideways – from 11:00 AM on September 18 – at 7:00 AM on September 20;
  • Stochastic 15 made a bearish divergence at 3:30 AM
  • RSI-9 is near 58 after reaching78 at 3:30 AM and making a bearish divergence
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is trending higher
  • The band narrowed from 8:45 PM to 2:30 AM; expanding since with price first moving along upper band till 4:15 Am and then dropping to the lower band by 5:45 AM
  • RSI dropped below 65 at 3:15 PM on September 0; moved between 50 and 65 till 5:15 AM and then dropped below 50;  still above 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D at 4:15 AM from above 90 after making a bearish divergence; crisscrossing %D below 20;below %D at 7:00 AM
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday September 20 in higher, mostly, volume. Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time highs. They, along with NASDAQ Composite and NYSE Composite, also gapped at the open and did not close the gap.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Utility
  9. Heath Care
  10. Real Estate
  11. Telecom