S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 9:00 PM within a narrow range between 2928.50 and 2924.00
The wait or indecision is for FOMC rate decision, statement and conference
Odds are for a sideways day; watch for break above 2934.50 and break below 2818.25 for clarity
Key economic data due:
FOMC Fed Funds Rate at 2:00 PM
FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
FOMC Economic Projections at 2:00 PM
FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai was down; Seoul was closed
European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K. and Italy are down; France, Spain, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
USD/INR
Commodities:
Up
Down
Platinum
Cotton
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield closed at 3.102%, up from September 24 close of 3.078%;
30-years is at 3.233%, up from 3.210%
2-years yield is at 2.834%, up from 2.825%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.259, down from 0.253
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2912.78, 2907.98 and 2903.82
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2923.12, 2927.11 and 2934.37
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2928.50, the high of 1:00 AM and break below 2924.50, the low of 3:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2920.75 and the index closed at 2915.56 – a spread of about +5.25 points; futures closed at 2921.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +4.00; Dow by +24.00; and NASDAQ by +12.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on September 21 was a relatively big green candle with almost equal sized small upper and lower shadows;
Last week’s pivot point=2918.91, R1=2951.67 R2=2973.66; S1=2896.92, S2=2864.16; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
Second up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A small red real body with smaller upper and lower shadow; bearish engulfing of a doji; previous day’s low was not breached and the high was just breached; effectively, still, an indecisive candle
%K is below %D after making a bearish divergence
Above 20-day EMA, above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Mostly moving sideways since 6:00 PM on September 23
Bouncing off from just above the upper limit of a horizontal channel – more like a cup-with-handle pattern – that was broken to the upside at 6:00 AM on September 20; the height of channel is 49.50 points; the 61.8% extension target near 2948.00 was achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2967.00
RSI-9 made a bullish divergence at 2:00 PM on September 25; above 50
At/above 20-bar EMA, which at/above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
The mostly moving sideways since 6:00 PM on September 23 between a high of 2934.25 and low of 2918.25
RSI-9 made a bullish divergence at 3:30 PM on September 25; moving between 40 and 65 since then
At/above 20-bar EMA, which is at/above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 1:00 AM
The band mostly narrow since 7:00 PM
RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since 2:15 PM on September 25
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K Is trending down and crisscrossing %D since 4.15 AM
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday September 25 in lower volume. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 were up and rest were down.
Day’s price range was small. Dow Jones Industrial Average is trending down since making the high at 12:00 PM on September 21. NASDAQ and Russell 2000, on the other hand, are bouncing since 12:00 PM on September 24.
