Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 4:30 AM below a downtrend line on 30-minute chart- Odds are for a down day; watch for break above 2921.25
- Key economic data due:
- Core PCE Price Index (0.0% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Spending (0.3% vs. 0.3%est.) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Income (0.3% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai and Seoul were down
- European markets are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
|
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 3.037%, down from September 27 close of 3.056%;
- 30-years is at 3.174%, down from 3.183%
- 2-years yield is at 2.823%, down from 2.831%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.218, down from 0.225
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2903.28, 2895.44 and 2890.43
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2917.01, 2921.62 and 2927.22
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2915.00, the low of 3:00 AM and break below 2908.00, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2919.75 and the index closed at 2914.00 – a spread of about +5.75 points; futures closed at 2920.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down -7.50; Dow by -80.00; and NASDAQ by -25.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on September 21 was a relatively big green candle with almost equal sized small upper and lower shadows;
- Last week’s pivot point=2918.91, R1=2951.67 R2=2973.66; S1=2896.92, S2=2864.16; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
- Second up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A shooting star or gravestone doji type candle formation – with a large upper shadow and very small lower shadow;
- %K is trying to cross above %D after staying below %D since September 21 after making a bearish divergence;
- Above 20-day EMA, above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Trending down since the high made on September 21 in steps; below a down trendline and making lower high and lower lows; last highs and lows are 2932.00 and 2907.50
- RSI-9 trending down since 10:00 AM on September 27; falling below 40
- Below 20-bar EMA, which below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Trending down since September 21; below another downtrend line from 12:30 PM on September 27
- Break above a double bottom pattern at 9:00 Am on September 27 achieved most targets
- RSI-9 trending down since 12:30 PM on September 27; near 30
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 2:00 AM
- The band was narrow and sideways from 8:30 PM to 2:00 AM; expanding since with price moving along the lower band
- RSI-9 mostly below 0 since 2:15 PM on September 27; near 25
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 7:45 AM
- Bias: Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday September 27 in lower volume. Russell 2000 closed down. The indices rose after a gap up open till about 12:30 PM and then steadily declined.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industrials
- Technology
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Heath Care
|
- Consumer Staples
- Energy (Unch.)
- Materials
- Finance
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday September 27 in lower volume. Russell 2000 closed down. The indices rose after a gap up open till about 12:30 PM and then steadily declined.
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