Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; but moving higher since 5:00 AM after making a double bottom at 2913.25 and bullish divergence on 15-minute chart
- Odds are for a down day; watch for break above 2924.00 and 2925.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Unemployment Claims (207K vs. 214K) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney was up; Shanghai was closed
- European markets are mostly down – Germany is up
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Sugar (Unch.)
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Crude Oil
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 3.193%, up from October 3 close of 3.161%;
- 30-years is at 3.351%, up from 3.319%
- 2-years yield is at 2.880%, up from 2.868%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.315, up from 0.293
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2921.36. 2919.49, 2917.91 and 2911.23
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2928.04, 2931.69 and 2937.37
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2924.00, the low on 3:00 AM on October 2 and break below 2917.50, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2930.25 and the index closed at 2925.51 – a spread of about +4.75 points; futures closed at 2931.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down -9.00; Dow by -155.00; and NASDAQ by -58.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on September 28 was a small red candle – that looks like a doji – with almost equal sized small upper and lower shadows;
- the whole candle, with shadows, was completely contained within the real body of previous week
- Stochastics (9,1, 3) and RSI (14) are making bearish divergences
- Last week’s pivot point=2916.14, R1=2928.99 R2=2944.01; S1=2901.12, S2=2888.27;no pivot levels were breached;
- A down week after two up weeks; second in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
- Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A red candle with small lower shadow but larger upper shadow; gapped up at the open but it was closed in the last hour of trading; the index had turned red before closing with a small gain
- %K is still above %D
- Above 20-day EMA, above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Near the low of 2917.50 at 2:00 AM on October 2; a convincing break it will complete a double top pattern with 100% extension target near 2890.00 level
- RSI-9 made a bearish divergence at 10:00 AM on October 3 above 65; below 40
- Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Near the low of a horizontal channel; a break below 2917.50 will have a 61.8% target near 2900.00 level
- RSI-9 rising after staying below 40 from 2:30 PM on October 3 to 5:00 AM; above 40
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly trending down since 2:45 PM on October 3
- The band was relatively narrow from 11:00 PM to 5:00 AM with price moving along the lower band; expanding since with price moving along upper band
- RSI-9 was below 40 from 2:30 PM on October 3 to 4:45 AM; near 50
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed below %D above 80
- Bias: Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday October 3 after a gap-up open. However, the indices gave up most of their gains in the last hour of trading. The volume was mixed. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volumes.
Sector |
Daily Trend |
Relative Strength (Last Month) |
Relative Strength (Current Month) |
Consumer Discretionary |
Up-Side (Break Down Support = 114.80) |
XLY |
SPY |
Consumer Staples |
Side (Break Down Support = 53.49) |
SPY |
SPY |
Energy |
Up (From Side) |
SPY |
XLE |
Materials |
Side |
SPY |
XLB |
Industrials |
Up-Side |
XLI |
XLI |
Finance |
Side |
SPY |
XLF |
Technology |
Up |
XLK |
XLK |
Utility |
Up-Side |
SPY |
SPY |
Heath Care |
Up |
XLV |
SPY |
Real Estate |
Side-Down |
SPY |
SPY |
Telecom |
Side |
XTL |
SPY |
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