S&P Futures are volatile due to Non-Farm Payroll; mostly sideways since 4:00 PM on Thursday
Odds are for a down day; Volatile day; watch for break above 2910.25 and below 2897.25 for more clarity
Key economic data due:
Non-Farm Employment Change (134K vs. 185K est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate (3.7% vs. 3.8% est.) at 8:30 AM
Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney was up; Shanghai was closed
European markets are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/INR
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar (Unch.)
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Copper
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 3.204%, up from October 4 close of 3.197%;
30-years is at 3.366%, up from 3.347%
2-years yield is at 2.893%, up from 2.868%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.311, down from 0.329
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2893.68. 2883.29 and 2879.20
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2903.72, 2908.70 and 2911.24
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2910.25, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2900.75, the low of 4:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2906.25 and the index closed at 2901.61 – a spread of about +4.75 points; futures closed at 2907.75 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down -3.00; Dow by -18.00; and NASDAQ by -16.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Side-Down
30-Min: Down
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Down-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on September 28 was a small red candle – that looks like a doji – with almost equal sized small upper and lower shadows;
the whole candle, with shadows, was completely contained within the real body of previous week
Stochastics (9,1, 3) and RSI (14) are making bearish divergences
Last week’s pivot point=2916.14, R1=2928.99 R2=2944.01; S1=2901.12, S2=2888.27;no pivot levels were breached;
A down week after two up weeks; second in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A relatively large red candle with no upper shadow and a lower shadow almost equal to the real body; the index gapped down at the open that did not close
%K crossed below %D
Below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke below an intermediate low between to high and completing a double top; 100% extension target near 2892.00 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 2877.00
RSI-9 rising from a low of 19.95 to 40
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Below a down trendline from October 3 high; just below a resistance level of 2913.25
RSI-9 rose from a low of 19.92 at 2:00 PM on October 4 to just above 50
Above 20-bar EMA but below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways since 7:30 PM on October 4
The band was narrow from 11:00 PM to 3:00 AM; expanding since with price moving along the lower band till 4;30 AM and is now approaching the upper band
RSI-9 rising from a low of 24.72 at 4:30 AM to above 50
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed below %D above 80 at 7:15 AM
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday October 4 after a gap-down open. Most did not reach the opening high. Dow Jones Transportation Average was the exception. The volume was high for all except DJT. Rising yields played a big part is day’s decline.
From Briefing.com:
A robust economic outlook, underlined by Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected ADP Employment Change report for September — which is a prelude to Friday’s consequential nonfarm payrolls reading — helped ignite the Treasury sell-off, thereby increasing yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-yr note climbed another four basis points on Thursday to 3.20% and is now up 16 basis points since Tuesday.
