Morning Notes – Wednesday November 28, 2018

• Under Pressure
• October 2018 closed sharply lower; broke below previous four months’ lows; only third down month since October 2016
• Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2% – continues; higher highs and higher lows

• The week ending on November 23 was a large red candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow
  • Stochastics (9,1, 3) and RSI (14) turning down – %K again crossed below %D from just below 50 and RSI also turned down from just below 50
  • During the week of October 22, Stochastics reached the lowest since the week of October 31, 2016 and RSI the lowest since the week on Jan 11, 2016
• Last week was down by -44.74 or -1.6% and ATR is 105.24
• Last week’s pivot point=2727.67, R1=284.59 R2=2832.91; S1=2679.35, S2=2622.43; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
• A down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
• Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level; retraced back to the lower trend line of triangle
• Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
  • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
  • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
  • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target near 2913.13 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 3138.85
• Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
  • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
  • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
  • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
• Last swing low, 2532.69, was the low on February 5, 2018; Last swing high, 2940.91, was during the week of September 17, 2018;
• Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA
• Uptrend Under Pressure

Daily

• A relatively large green candle that opened near the middle of previous day’s real body and closed above it high; small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow
  • %K crossed above %D on November 26 from around 1
  • Still lower highs and lower lows since October 3; the break above the last lower high of 2816.94 on October 17 was missed by a whisker
• Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA
• In Correction

• Rising since 8:00 AM on November 23 after RSI-9 made a bullish divergence; broke above a downtrend line from November 8 high at 4:00 PM on Tuesday; broke a sequence of lower high and lower high since November 8
• RSI-9 rising since 8:00 AM on November 20; made a bullish divergence at 12:00 PM on November 23
• Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50; both turned up
• Bias: Side-Up

• Rising since 8:30 AM on November 23;
• Broke above a horizontal channel – high 2671.25 and low 2627.00 – the 61.8% extension target is near 2689.00 and the 100% extension target is near 2715.00
• RSI-9 mostly above 40 since November 23; occasional breaks above 65; above 50 since 12:00 PM on November 27
• Above 20-bar EMA , which is above EMA10 of EMA50; both rising
• Bias: Up

• Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly drifting up since 8:30 AM on November 23 with periodic sideways moves
• The band was narrow from 10:00 PM to 00:45 AM; expanding since; the pace of range expansion increasing since 6:30 AM
• RSI-9 rising from near 40 at 3:30 AM; just below 65
• Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D from below 10 at 3:30 AM; crossed below %D at 8:30 AM after making a bearish divergence
• Bias: Up