Morning Notes – Tuesday December 18, 2018

• Under Pressure
• October 2018 closed sharply lower; broke below previous four months’ lows; only third down month since October 2016; November was a harami spinning top near the lower end of October
• Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2% – continues; higher highs and higher lows

• The week ending on December 14 was a red candle with a real body completely below the real body of previous’ week’s red candle; upper shadow almost double of the lower shadow, which is equal to real body in size;
  • Stochastics (9,1, 3) and RSI (14) turned down again – %K crossed below %D and is  below 10; RSI has turned down too and is just above 40
  • The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the rally from February 2016 low is near 2508.00
  • During the week of October 22, Stochastics reached the lowest since the week of October 31, 2016 and RSI the lowest since the week on Jan 11, 2016; %K is below that level but the RSI is above
• Last week was down -33.13 or -1.3% and ATR is 102.21
• Last week’s pivot point=2622.87, R1=2662.52 R2=2725.08; S1=2560.31, S2=2520.66; No pivot levels were breached;
• A down week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
• Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level; retraced back to the lower trend line of triangle
• Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
  • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
  • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
  • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target near 2913.13 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 3138.85
• Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
  • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
  • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
  • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
• Last swing low, 2532.69, was the low on February 5, 2018; Last swing high, 2940.91, was during the week of September 17, 2018;
• Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA (first since June 27, 2016)
• Uptrend Under Pressure

Daily

• A large red real bodied candle with small upper and lower shadows ; broke below  support created by past 3-months lows; broke below February 2018 lows
  • %K turned below %D from just above 20; below 10; near 5 and bullish divergence; RSI-9 is falling below 40 and is below its level on December 12
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since October 3 2018
• Below 20-day EMA , 50-day EMA, below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
• In Correction

• Futures again below a downtrend line from December 3 high that they broke above once at 8:00 AM on December 12; declining in steps i.e. lower highs and lower lows;
•  RSI-9 made three lows since 2:00 PM on December 14 and made bullish divergences
• Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
• Bias: Down

• Moving mostly down higher since 1:00 PM on December 13;
• RSI-9 rising from a low of 19.3 at 3:00 PM on December 17; just above 50
• At/above 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
• Bias: Down-Side

• Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways to up since 7:30 PM on Monday
• The band is relatively narrow since 2:45 AM
• RSI-9 moving up since 3:30 PM on Monday from near 20; just above 50
• Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D above 50 since 1:15 AM
• Bias: Down-Side