Morning Notes – Tuesday January 15, 2019

• Under Pressure
• October 2018 closed sharply lower; broke below previous four months’ lows; only third down month since October 2016; November was a harami spinning top near the lower end of October
• Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2% – continues; higher highs and higher lows

• The week ending on January 11 was a relatively large green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; the high is near a resistance level – the low of October 2018, which was support earlier
  • Stochastics (9,1, 3) and RSI (14) moving up – %K is above %D; RSI is moving above 40
  • The index has retraced 38.2% of the decline from the high in early October 2018
  • The index reached below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level – at 2374.98 – from the rally from February 2016 low and reached a low of 2346.58; the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is near 2251.86
  • During the week of October 22, Stochastics reached the lowest since the week of October 31, 2016; last week RSI reached the lowest since the week on August 15, 2011;
• Last week was up +64.32 or +2.5% and ATR is 73.26
• Last week’s pivot point=2572.88, R1=2621.20, R2=2646.4; S1=2547.94, S2=2499.62; R1 pivot level was breached;
• An up week; third in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
• The break above an ascending triangle in May 2018 is nullified as the price has fallen below its low
• The break above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017 is also nullified; the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 was achieved; 100% extension target of a longer flag-pole near 2913.13 is achieved
• Last swing low, 2532.69, was the low on February 5, 2018 and breached in December 2018
• Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA (first since June 27, 2016)
• Downtrend

Daily

• A small doji candle just below the open of previous day’s green real body; near the resistance created by October 29, 2018 low of 2603.54 and 50-day EMA
  • ABCD pattern emerged on January 4th; the 61.8% extension target near 2551.00 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2617.00
  • %K is crossing below %D over 90;
  • RSI-14 is just above 50
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since October 3, 2018
• Above 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA, below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
• Downtrend

• Futures are mostly moving sideways to up since 2:00 PM on January 8; bias since 6:00 PM on December 25 is up; higher highs and higher lows since then
• RSI-9 declining from above 65 to below 50
• At/above 20-BAR EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
• Bias: Side

• Moving sideways to down since 8:00 PM on January 8, which is more like a round topping pattern;
• RSI-9 declined from above 65 to below 40
• Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below 20-bar EMA
• Bias: Side

• Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to down since 1:00 AM
• The band narrowed from 0:45 AM to 3:00 AM; expanding since with price mostly moving along lower band
• RSI-9 declining from above 65 at 1:00 AM to below 40
• Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D from just over 90
• Bias: Side-Down2