S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 8:30 PM on Monday in steps
Daily and weekly trends are down
Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 2637.50 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI (est. 5.0%; prev. 5.0%) at 9:00 AM
CB Consumer Confidence (est. 125; prev. 128.1) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Seoul were up
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/INR
AUD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Sugar
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.741%, down from January 28 close of 2.744%;
30-years is at 3.068%, up from 3.061%
2-years yield is at 2.585%, down from 2.595%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.156, up from 0.149
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2634.21, 2624.06 and 2612.86
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2644.97, 2658.75 and 2669.12
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2647.75, the low of 3:30 AM on January 28 and break below 2637.50, the low of 6:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (January contract) closed at 2642.75 and the index closed at 2643.85 – a spread of about -1.00 points; futures closed at 2642.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.50; Dow by +55; and NASDAQ by +10.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Down
Daily: Downtrend Paused
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Down-Side
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
October 2018 closed sharply lower; broke below previous four months’ lows; only third down month since October 2016; November was a harami spinning top near the lower end of October
Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2% – continues; higher highs and higher lows
The week ending on January 25 was a small green candle with long lower shadow and small upper shadow; the high was below previous week’s high and week’s low reached near previous week’s middle; approaching the downtrend line, which may act as a resistance
Stochastics (9,1, 3) and RSI (14) moving up – %K is above %D; RSI is moving up and is near 50
The index is nearing the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the high in early October 2018
The index reached below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level – at 2374.98 – from the rally from February 2016 low and reached a low of 2346.58; the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is near 2251.86
During the week of October 22, Stochastics reached the lowest since the week of October 31, 2016; last week RSI reached the lowest since the week on August 15, 2011;
Last week was down -5.95 or -0.2% and ATR is 59.52
Last week’s pivot point=2650.00, R1=2687.14, R2=2709.52; S1=2627.62, S2=2590.48; no pivot levels were breached;
A down week; first after four up weeks; first in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
The break above an ascending triangle in May 2018 is nullified as the price has fallen below its low
The break above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017 is also nullified; the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 was achieved; 100% extension target of a longer flag-pole near 2913.13 is achieved
Last swing low, 2532.69, was the low on February 5, 2018 and breached in December 2018
Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA (first since June 27, 2016)
Downtrend
Daily
A small red candle that gapped down at the open; no upper shadow and relatively long lower shadow; made day’s low by 12:00 PM and then drifted higher; just below the downtrend line from October 2018 high
%K again crossed below %D after rising above 80;
RSI-14 is turned down from near 60; failure swing top and a break below 55.94 will be critical
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since October 3, 2018
Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Downtrend Paused
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Moving mostly sideways since 2:00 PM on January 17; making a rounding pattern at the high since 4:00 PM on January 18; the high January 25 was very near the high on January 18 – almost like a double top;
RSI-9 rising from a low of 22.3 at 10:00 AM on January 28; a failure swing bottom
At/below 20-bar EMA; below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Drifting lower since 12:00 PM on January 25; rising since 12:00 PM on January 28; breaking above a downtrend line
RSI-9 rising from below 15 at 9:30 AM on January 28; near 65
Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above 20-bar EMA
Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 11:45 PM on Monday
The band was slightly narrow from 1:30 PM to 00:30 AM; expanded since; price mostly moving around the upper band
RSI-9 is generally moving up since 10:00 AM on Monday from a low of 12.45; above 40 since 8:15 PM; near 65
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D since 6:15 AM
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday January 28 in lower volume. Most indices gapped down at the open and in the process made 3-day ‘Abandoned Baby Top‘ candlestick formation, which is bearish in nature.
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 declined as much as 1.5% on Monday, as warnings from Caterpillar (CAT 124.37, -12.49, -9.1%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 138.01, -22.14, -13.8%) catalyzed early selling efforts. The benchmark index, however, ended the day down 0.8% and finished near its best levels of the session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.6%.
The S&P 500 information technology (-1.4%), communication services (-1.2%), and health care (-1.1%) sectors underperformed the broader market. Conversely, the real estate (+1.0%) and consumer staples (+0.5%) sectors were the lone groups to finish in the green.
