Morning Notes – Monday February 11, 2019

• Under Pressure
• October 2018 closed sharply lower; broke below previous four months’ lows; only third down month since October 2016; November was a harami spinning top near the lower end of October
• Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2% – continues; higher highs and higher lows

• The week ending on February 8 was a doji candle following the bullish engulfing candle of previous week; staying above the downtrend line from October 2018 high
  • Stochastics (9,1, 3) and RSI (14) moving up – %K is above %D and above 90; RSI is moving up and is just above 50
  • The index is at the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the high in early October 2018
  • The index reached below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level – at 2374.98 – from the rally from February 2016 low and reached a low of 2346.58; the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is near 2251.86
  • During the week of October 22, Stochastics reached the lowest since the week of October 31, 2016; last week RSI reached the lowest since the week on August 15, 2011;
• Last week was up +1.35 or +0.0% and ATR is 57.15
• Last week’s pivot point=2709.56, R1=2737.30, R2=2766.71; S1=2680.15, S2=2652.41; No pivot levels were breached;
• An up week; second in a row and fourth in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
• The break above an ascending triangle in May 2018 is nullified as the price has fallen below its low
• The break above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017 is also nullified; the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 was achieved; 100% extension target of a longer flag-pole near 2913.13 is achieved
• Last swing low, 2532.69, was the low on February 5, 2018 and breached in December 2018
• Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA (first since June 27, 2016)
• Downtrend Reversing

Daily

• A green candle that gapped down at the open but then closed very near the close of Thursday; almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; the irregular shaped evening star may be nullified
  • %K is below %D falling below 80;
  • RSI-14 below 65; just above 60
  • RSI-9 is falling; near 60; 8-SMA of RSI9 is till rising
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since October 3, 2018; need to rise above 2800.18 to break it
• Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA; at/below 100-day SMA; below 200-day SMA
• Uptrend

• Drifting up since 10:00 AM on Friday;
  • Made a double bottom; The 61.8% extension target of the DT near 2718.25 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2726.00 and the 161.8% extension target is near 2738.50
  • The Flag-Pennant targets, made late January, 38.2% extension target is near 2758.00, the 61.8% extension target is near 2815.00 and the 100% extension target is near 2906.00
• RSI-9 is moving higher 10:00 AM on February 7; made a bullish divergence at 6:00 AM on Friday
• Above 20-bar EMA, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50
• Bias: Down-Side

• Moving sideways since 4:00 AM after moving up from 8:30 PM on Sunday
• RSI-9 is rising from below 60 since 6:30 AM after falling from above 80 at 4:00 AM
• Above 20-bar EMA, which is above  EMA10 of EMA50
• Bias: Up

• Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 3:15 AM
• The band narrowed from 111:30 PM to 2:45 AM; expanded from 3:15 AM; narrowing since 8:15 AM
• RSI-21 is declining since 4:00 AM; made a bearish failure swing at 8:00 AM
• Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D from above 90; below 60
• Bias: Up-Side