Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher;
• The odds are for a sideway day – watch for a break above 3236.50 and break below 3204.50 for clarity
• Key economic data due:
  • Good Trade Balance ( -70.6B vs. -75.5B est.; prev. -74.3B) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Wholesale Inventories ( -2.0% vs. -0.4% est.; prev. -1.2% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Pending Home Sales ( 15.6% est.; prev. 44.3%) at 10:00 AM
  • FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
  • Fed Funds Rate ( <0.25% est.; prev. <0.25% ) at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3216.17, 3204.88 and 3198.59
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3231.24, 3243.72 and 3278.42
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3223.50, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 3204.25, the low of 0:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2020) closed at 3211.75 and the index closed at 3218.44 – a spread of about -6.75 points; futures closed at 3213.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +11.50; Dow by +63 and NASDAQ by +71.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Seoul closed up; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Singapore closed down
• European markets are mostly lower – UK and France are up
• Currencies:
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities:
  

  Up	Down
  Crude Oil Gold Silver Copper Coffee Cotton Cocoa	NatGas Platinum Palladium Sugar

• Bond
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 0.581%, down from July 27 close of 0.609%;
  • 30-years is at 1.223% down from 1.252%
  • 2-years yield is at 0.137% down from 0.158%
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.444 down from 0.451
• VIX
  • Is at 25.14; down – 0.30 from July 28 close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high 33.67 on July 14; low 23.61 on July 21
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, July 28 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and S&P 50 traded in higher volume. For the past few days, major indices are moving mostly sideways.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 declined 0.7% on Tuesday, pressured by some late selling and a cautious mindset ahead of numerous key events this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.0%. […] The mega-cap stocks accelerated losses into the close after finding renewed strength yesterday, joining stocks within the S&P 500 materials (-2.2%) and energy (-1.8%) sectors as today’s laggards. The defensive-oriented real estate (+2.1%), utilities (+1.6%), and consumer staples (+0.3%) sectors closed higher. […] U.S. Treasuries finished with modest gains in front of the July FOMC statement tomorrow. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.14%, and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points to 0.58%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 93.77. WTI crude futures fell 1.4%, or $0.58, to $41.04/bbl. […] The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 92.6 in July (Briefing.com consensus 95.0) from an upwardly revised 98.3 (from 98.1) in June, as reports detailing the resurgence of coronavirus cases and efforts to pause or roll back reopenings because of the resurgence weighed on consumer attitudes. The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that consumers have gotten less optimistic about the short-term outlook and “remain subdued about their financial prospects,” which is a negative portent for consumer spending. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May increased 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%) following a revised 3.9% increase in April (from +4.0%).