Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower;
• The odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways to up move from the pre-open levels around 3910.00 – watch for a break above 3925.75 and break below 3896.50 for clarity
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Prelim GDP ( 4.1% vs. 4.2% est.; prev. 4.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Durable Goods Orders ( 1.4% vs. 0.6% est.; prev. 1.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • Durable Goods Orders ( 3.4% vs. 0.9% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim GDP Price Index ( 2.1% vs. 2.0% est.; prev. 2.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 730K vs. 828K est.; prev. 841K) at 8:30 AM
  • Pending Home Sales ( 0.2% est.; prev. -0.3%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3902.92, 3895.95, and 3859.60
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3916.74, 3928.65, and 3933.61
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3924.75, the high of 6:00 AM and break below 3896.50, the high of 7:45 AM on Wednesday

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2021) closed at 3920.50 and the index closed at 3925.43 – a spread of about -5.00 points; futures closed at 3922.50 for the day; the fair value is -2.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -16.50; Dow by -23, and NASDAQ by -129.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are mixed – the UK, France, Spain, and Italy are higher; Germany, STOXX 600, and Switzerland are down
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Most soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.389%, up 25.6 BP from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.242%, up 31.8 BP;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.1280%, up 1.9 BP;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.261, up from 1.024
• VIX
  • At 22.84 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; at/above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  27.01 on February 23; low =  19.69 on February 10
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, February 24 in lower volume. Indices opened lower but then turned around in the first hour of trading and then moved higher closing near the highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and NYSE Composite closed at all-time highs.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% on Wednesday in a strong session, as the market remained influenced by reopening optimism, a buy-the-dip mindset, and Fed Chair Powell. The Russell 2000 gained 2.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4% for a record close, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.0%. […] The 10-yr yield finished three basis points higher at 1.39%, and the 2-yr yield finished three basis points higher at 0.13%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.1% to 90.07. WTI crude futures increased another 2.5%, or $1.56, to $63.24/bbl. […] New home sales increased 4.3% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 923,000 in January (Briefing.com consensus 855,000) from an upwardly revised 885,000 (from 842,000) in December. On a yr/yr basis, new home sales were up 19.3%. […] The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 11.4% following a 5.1% decline in the prior week. […] Russell 2000 +15.7% YTD Nasdaq Composite +5.5% YTD S&P 500 +4.5% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.4% YTD