Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower;
• Futures rising since 11:00 PM from a low of 3777.50 to around 3820.00 level
• The daily bias is sideways to down
• The odds are for a choppy day with a good chance of an up day – watch for a break above 3877.25 for a change of fortune
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 745K vs. 758K est.; prev. 730K) at 8:30 AM
  • Revised Non-Farm Productivity ( -4.2% vs. -4.7% est.; prev. -4.8%) at 8:30 AM
  • Revised Unit Labor Costs ( 6.0% vs. 6.7% est.; prev. 6.8%) at 8:30 AM
  • Factor Orders (2.2% est.; prev. 1.1%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3810.81, 3789.54, and 3769.40
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3818.86, 3841.89, and 3848.14
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3818.75, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 3789.00, the low of 5:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2021) closed at 3817.00 and the index closed at 3819.72 – a spread of about -2.75 points; futures closed at 3816.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.00; Dow by -38, and NASDAQ by -37.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed lower
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Most soft commodities are lower
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.470%, up 16.9 BP from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.252%, up 18.3 BP;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.149%, up 4.4 BP;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.321, up from 1.196
• VIX
  • At 26.53 @ 7:30 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  31.16 on February 25; low =  19.69 on February 10
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, March 3 in higher volume. The indices opened lower and then traded down for the rest of the day closing near the lows. Most indices made 3-day Evening Star type of candlestick formations. NASDAQ is at major support. All but three S&P sectors – Energy, Industrials and Financials – closed lower

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Wednesday, as the growth stocks continued to face valuation-oriented and rotational headwinds amid a rise in long-term interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite (-2.7%), which has greater exposure to these names, dropped 2.7%. The Russell 2000 declined 1.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.4%. […] The 10-yr yield rose six basis points to 1.47%, although it settled below its intraday high of 1.50% and well below last week’s high of 1.61%. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 90.96. […] The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 55.3% in February (Briefing.com consensus 58.6%) from 58.7% in January. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The February reading marks the ninth straight month of growth for the services sector, but it is the slowest pace since May 2020. […] The ADP Employment Change report estimated 117,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls in February (Briefing.com consensus +180,000) following an upwardly revised 195,000 increase (from 174,000) in January. The IHS Markit Services PMI for February was revised higher to 59.8 from 58.3 in the preliminary reading. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 0.5% following a 11.4% drop in the prior week. […] Russell 2000 +11.8% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.2% YTD S&P 500 +1.7% YTD Nasdaq Composite +0.9% YTD