Futures rising since 11:00 PM from a low of 3777.50 to around 3820.00 level
The daily bias is sideways to down
The odds are for a choppy day with a good chance of an up day – watch for a break above 3877.25 for a change of fortune
Key economic data report due during the day:
Unemployment Claims ( 745K vs. 758K est.; prev. 730K) at 8:30 AM
Revised Non-Farm Productivity ( -4.2% vs. -4.7% est.; prev. -4.8%) at 8:30 AM
Revised Unit Labor Costs ( 6.0% vs. 6.7% est.; prev. 6.8%) at 8:30 AM
Factor Orders (2.2% est.; prev. 1.1%) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Side-Down
30-Min: Down-Side
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Down-Side
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3810.81, 3789.54, and 3769.40
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3818.86, 3841.89, and 3848.14
Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3818.75, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 3789.00, the low of 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2021) closed at 3817.00 and the index closed at 3819.72 – a spread of about -2.75 points; futures closed at 3816.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.00; Dow by -38, and NASDAQ by -37.25
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed lower
European markets are lower
Currencies (from two weeks ago):
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
INR/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities (from two weeks ago):
Energy futures are lower
Precious metals are lower
Industrial metals are lower
Most soft commodities are lower
Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
10-years yield closed at 1.470%, up 16.9 BP from two weeks ago;
30-years is at 2.252%, up 18.3 BP;
2-years yield is at 0.149%, up 4.4 BP;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.321, up from 1.196
VIX
At 26.53 @ 7:30 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 31.16 on February 25; low = 19.69 on February 10
Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly
Confirmed Uptrend
December 2020 was a green candle with a small gap and with almost no upper and lower shadows; all-time closing and intraday highs;
Stochastic %K above %D near 100;
RSI-9 above 70; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018
Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is resumed
Weekly:
The week ending on February 26 was a red candle with mall upper and lower shadows; a three-week Evening Star pattern is emerging
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D, which is turning down and forming a Bearish Divergence
RSI (9) is below 60; potential Bearish Divergence emerging
The week was down -95.56 or -2.4%; the 5-week ATR is 122.78
A down week; second in a row, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the last ten weeks
The weekly week pivot point=3843.11, R1=3896.69, R2=3982.22; S1=3757.58, S2=3704.00; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached
At/above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily
A relatively large red candle forming a three-day Evening Star pattern; closed below Monday’s large green candle but still up for the week
Broke above a symmetrical triangle at 3550.00 level on November 9; the 100% extension target near 3900.00 is achieved; 161.8% extension target is near 4140.00 levels
%K is below %D; just above 20
RSI-9 near 40; below 8-day EMA
Below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA
Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Moving sideways to down since 2:00 PM on Monday after bouncing up from 3785.00 at 10:00 AM on Friday;
Lower highs and lower lows since making the all-time high on February 15
RSI-21 just below 40; declining since 2:00 PM on Monday
Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is at/below EMA20
Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Broke below a Descending Triangle on Wednesday; achieved 161.8% extension target; moving sideways since 6:00 PM within a support zone
Potential Inverse Head-&-Shoulder pattern emerging and break above 3818.75 will trigger it
RSI-21 up since 6:30 PM; Bullish Engulfing at 11:00 PM
At/above EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 10:00 PM;
The Bollinger Band is stable but relatively large with the price around the middle band
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D above 80
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, March 3 in higher volume. The indices opened lower and then traded down for the rest of the day closing near the lows. Most indices made 3-day Evening Star type of candlestick formations. NASDAQ is at major support. All but three S&P sectors – Energy, Industrials and Financials – closed lower
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Wednesday, as the growth stocks continued to face valuation-oriented and rotational headwinds amid a rise in long-term interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite (-2.7%), which has greater exposure to these names, dropped 2.7%. The Russell 2000 declined 1.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.4%.
[…]
The 10-yr yield rose six basis points to 1.47%, although it settled below its intraday high of 1.50% and well below last week’s high of 1.61%. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 90.96.
[…]
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 55.3% in February (Briefing.com consensus 58.6%) from 58.7% in January. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The February reading marks the ninth straight month of growth for the services sector, but it is the slowest pace since May 2020.
[…]
The ADP Employment Change report estimated 117,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls in February (Briefing.com consensus +180,000) following an upwardly revised 195,000 increase (from 174,000) in January.
The IHS Markit Services PMI for February was revised higher to 59.8 from 58.3 in the preliminary reading.
The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 0.5% following a 11.4% drop in the prior week.
