Morning Notes – Tuesday March 30, 2021

/ March 30, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • The odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways move from pre-open levels around 3945.00 – watch for a break above 3962.00 and below 3939.25 for clarity
  • Key economic data report due during the day:
    • HPI ( 1.2% est.; prev. 1.1%) at 9:00 AM
    • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( 11.4% est.; prev. 10.1%) at 9:00 AM
    • Consumer COnfidence ( 96.9 est.; prev. 91.3) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend Resumed
  • 120-Min: Side-Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3963.79, 3950.60, and 3943.25
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3981.12, 3987.53, and 4003.97
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3962.00, the high of 6:00 AM; and break below 3939.25, the low of 12:00 PM on Monday

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2021) closed at 3961.75 and the index closed at 3971.09 – a spread of about -10.25 points; futures closed at 3959.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -11.50; Dow by -2, and NASDAQ by -82.50

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney was down
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies (from two weeks ago):
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • INR/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (from two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are lower
    • Most soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
    • 10-years yield closed at 1.721%, up +11.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • 30-years is at 2.424%, up +5.6 basis points;
    • 2-years yield is at 0.140%, down -0.9 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.581, up from 1.458
  • VIX
    • At 21.42 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high =  23.90 on March 19; low =  18.68 on March 26
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2020 was a green candle with a small gap and with almost no upper and lower shadows; all-time closing and intraday highs;
    • Stochastic %K above %D near 100;
    • RSI-9 above 70; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018
    • Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
  • The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is resumed
Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 26 was a green candle almost like a Bullish Engulfing pattern; at the all-time high close
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is crossing above %D
    • RSI (9) is above 65
  • The week was up +61.44 or +1.6%; the 5-week ATR is 138.62
  • An up week; third in the last five weeks, and sixth in the last ten weeks
  • The weekly week pivot point=3935.41, R1=4017.32, R2=4060.10; S1=3892.63, S2=3810.72; R1/S1 pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily
  • A Doji with a smaller upper shadow than the lower shadow near all-time highs
    • Broke above a symmetrical triangle at 3550.00 level on November 9; the 100% extension target near 3900.00 is achieved; 161.8% extension target is near 4140.00 levels
    • %K  is above %D; above 90; turning down
    • RSI-9 is above 60; above 8-day EMA
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting down from near the all-time high;
    • Broke above a down-sloping flag on March 26; the  61.8% extension target is near 4002.00 and 100% extension target is hear 4100.00;
    • RSI-21 declined below 50 after a Bearish Divergence on Monday
  • At/below EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
    • Drifting sideways to down since 1:00 PM on Monday
      • RSI-21 just above 40
      • Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below EMA20
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting sideways to down since 6:45 PM
  • The Bollinger Band is expanding since 6:45 AM with price walking down the lower band
  • Broke below a Descending Triangle at 7:00 AM; the 61.8% extension target near 3944.00 s achieved; the 100% extension target is near 3938.75 and the 161.8% target is near 3928.75
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D around 20
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Monday, March 29 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. Indices opened lower but turned around in late morning trading. Most indices made small real body candles.

From Briefing.com:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) closed at fresh record highs on Monday after starting the session modestly lower, while the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) finished with modest declines. The Russell 2000 closed at session lows with a sharp 2.8% decline, as small-caps remained subject to profit-taking interest.

[…]

The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 92.93. WTI crude futures increased 0.9%, or $0.56, to $61.55/bbl. On a related note, the Ever Given was refloated on the Suez Canal.

[…]
  • Russell 2000 +9.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +8.4% YTD
  • S&P 500 +5.7% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +1.3% YTD
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