The odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways move from pre-open levels around 4195.00 down day
Key economic data report due during the day:
ISM Manufacturing PMI ( 65.0 est.; prev. 64.7) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend Resumed
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side-Up
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4189.98, 4174.85, and 4168.34
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4198.10, 4207.04, and 4218.78
Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4199.50, the high of 3:15 AM and break below 4182.50, the low of 2:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2021) closed at 4177.25 and the index closed at 4181.17 – a spread of about -4.00 points; futures closed at 4174.50 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +22.00; Dow by +216, and NASDAQ by +46.25
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower
European markets are higher
Currencies (from two weeks ago):
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
INR/USD
Commodities (from two weeks ago):
Energy futures are higher
Precious metals are lower
Industrial metals are mixed
Most soft commodities are mixed
Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
10-years yield closed at 1.624%, up +5.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
30-years is at 2.292%, up +3.1 basis points;
2-years yield is at 0.160%, up +0.3 basis points;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.464, up from 1.416
VIX
At 18.39 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 19.90 on April 22; low = 15.38 on April 14
Sentiment: Risk-On-to-Neutral
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly
Confirmed Uptrend
March 2021 was a green candle with a small upper shadow and a lower shadow almost equal to the real body; at all-time closing and intra-month highs;
Stochastic %K above %D near 100;
RSI-9 near 75; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018
Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is resumed
Weekly:
The week ending on April 30 was a small Gravestone Doji at all-time highs;
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D;
RSI (9) is above 75
The week was up +1.00 or +0.0%; the 5-week ATR is 76.64
An up week; fourth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks
The weekly week pivot point=4191.60, R1=4208.35, R2=4235.53; S1=4164.42, S2=4147.67; R1 pivot level was breached
Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily
A small red candle with almost no lower shadow and small upper shadow
Broke above a symmetrical triangle at 3550.00 level on November 9; the 161.8% extension target near 4140.00 levels is achieved
%K is below %D near 60
RSI-9 is below 65; below 8-day EMA
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Drifting sideways since 10:00 AM on April 15; Uptrend since 10:00 AM on March 25;
Broke above a down-sloping flag on March 26; the 100% extension target near 4100.00 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 4260.00
RSI-21 is around 55
At/above EMA10 of EMA50, which is at/above EMA20
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Drifting sideways to down since 9:30 AM on April 29
RSI-21 moving around 55
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 4:00 PM on Friday
The Bollinger Band is relatively stable
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D since 9:00 AM
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, April 30 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in lower volume.
The S&P 500 declined 0.7% on Friday, finishing the week little changed, as the market was unable to key off another round of great economic and earnings news. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%. The Russell 2000 lagged with a 1.3% decline.
[…]
U.S. Treasuries finished little changed, albeit with some defensive undertones in the longer-end of the curve. The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.16%, and the 10-yr yield decreased one basis point to 1.63%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.7% to 91.27. WTI crude futures fell 2.4%, or $1.52, to $63.51/bbl.
[…]
Personal income surged 21.1% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 20.5%) and personal spending rose 4.2% (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%). The PCE Price Index jumped 0.5%, as expected, leaving it up 2.3% year-over-year, while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), leaving it up 1.8% year-over-year.
[…]
The final April reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 88.3 (Briefing.com consensus 87.0) from the preliminary reading of 84.9. The final reading for March was 84.9.
[…]
The Q1 Employment Cost Index increased 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%), seasonally adjusted, for the three-month period ending in March 2021 after increasing 0.7% for the three-month period ending December 2020. Wages and salaries, which account for about 70% of compensation costs, rose 1.0%, while benefit costs, which make up the remainder of compensation costs, increased 0.6%.
[…]
The Chicago PMI increased to 72.1 in April (Briefing.com consensus 62.0) from 66.3 in March.
