Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower
- The odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways move from pre-open levels around 4150.00 – watch for a break above 4164.00 and a break below 4147.25 for clarity
- No key economic data report due during the day:
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4149. 64, 4129.58, and 4111.53
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4175.90, 4188.13, and 4207.94
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4164.25, the high of 4:45 AM and break below 4147.25, the low of 8:15 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2021) closed at 4169.00 and the index closed at 4173.85 – a spread of about -5.00 points; futures closed at 4169.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -16.00; Dow by -134, and NASDAQ by -66.25
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo and Seoul closed lower
- European markets are mostly lower – Itlay and Switzerland are up
- Currencies (from two weeks ago):
Up Down - EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- INR/USD
- Commodities (from two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mixed
- Most soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 1.634%, up +0.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 2.347%, up +5.0 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 0.153%, down -0.7 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.479, up from 1.471
- VIX
- At 20.75 @ 8:00 AM; higher from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 28.93 on May 13; low = 16.68 on May 7
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly |
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Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, May 14 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume. Major indices opened up and then mostly traded higher for the day.
For the week, major US indices closed lower in higher volume. Most Asian markets were down and European markets were mixed. The dollar index was up, energy futures were down, precious metals were mixed, industrial metals and most soft commodities were down for the week. The US Treasury yields closed up.
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on Friday in a steady and broad-based advance, as investors followed through on yesterday’s dip-buying efforts. The Nasdaq Composite (+2.3%) and Russell 2000 (+2.5%) rose more than 2.0% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.1%. […] Every sector in the S&P 500 closed higher, advancing issues outpaced declining issues by noticeable margins at the NYSE and Nasdaq, and the speculative growth stocks joined in on the action after sitting out of yesterday’s advance. The energy sector (+3.2%) was the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 while the information technology sector (+2.1%) was the most influential.
[…]The 2-yr yield decreased one basis point to 0.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.5% to 90.32. WTI crude futures increased 2.4%, or $1.51, to $65.33/bbl. The CBOE Volatility Index (18.81, -4.32, -18.7%) fell below 20.00.
[…]Reviewing Friday’s economic data:
[…]
- Total retail sales were flat month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus +1.8%) following an upwardly revised 10.7% increase (from 9.8%) in March. Excluding autos, retail sales declined 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +1.2%) following an upwardly revised 9.0% increase (from 8.4%) in March.
- […]
- The preliminary May reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 82.8 (Briefing.com consensus 90.2) from the final reading of 88.3 for April.
- […]
- Total industrial production increased 0.7% m/m in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) following an upwardly revised 2.4% increase (from 1.4%) in March. The capacity utilization rate increased to 74.9% (Briefing.com consensus 75.1%) from an unchanged 74.4% in March.
- […]
- Import prices were up 0.7% month-over-month in April and up 0.7% as well, excluding fuel. Export prices increased 0.8% month-over-month in April and were up 0.9%, excluding agricultural exports
- Business inventories increased 0.3% m/m in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase (from +0.5%) in February.
- Russell 2000 +12.7% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.3% YTD
- S&P 500 +11.1% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +4.2% YTD
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