Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are a higher;
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility
• Non-Farm payroll report will have an impact on the day’s trading – watch for a break above 4318.25 and a break below 4309.00
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change ( 850K vs. 725K est.; prev. 559K at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.3% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Rate ( 5.9% vs. 5.6% est.; prev. 5.8%) at 8:30 AM
  • Trade Balance ( -71.2B vs. -71.4B est.; p[rev. -68.9B) at 8:30 AM
  • Factory Orders ( 1.7% est.; prev. -0.6%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4315.29, 4303.92, and 4291.46
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4326.82, 4333.71, and 4346.75
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4318.25, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 4309.50, the low of 4:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4310.50 and the index closed at 4319.94 – a spread of about -9.50 points; futures closed at 4310.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25; Dow down by -6, and NASDAQ up by +55.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and closed lower
• European markets are mostly higher – France and Spain are lower
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Most soft commodities are higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.480%, down -3.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.086%, down -1.4 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.263%, up +4.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.217, down from 1.294
• VIX
  • At 15.36 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  21.82 on June 21; low =  14.10 on June 29
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, July 1 in lower volume. All but one S&P sector – Consumer Staples – closed higher. S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all-time intraday and closing highs.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Thursday, kicking off the third quarter with another pair of intraday and closing record highs. The Russell 2000 pulled ahead with a 0.8% gain, the Dow Jones Industrial Average kept pace with a 0.4% gain, and the Nasdaq Composite underperformed with a 0.1% gain. […] U.S. Treasuries ended the session mostly lower amid the positive bias in stocks and encouraging economic data, but there appeared to be a lack of conviction in front of the June employment report tomorrow. The 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.47% while the 2-yr yield was flat at 0.25%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 92.55. […] The June ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 60.6% (Briefing.com consensus 61.0%), down from 61.2% in May. A number above 50.0% is indicative of expansion. June marked the 13th straight month of expansion for the manufacturing sector, albeit at a slightly slower pace than what was seen in May. […] For the week ending June 26, initial claims decreased by 51,000 to 364,000 (Briefing.com consensus 400,000), which is the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Continuing claims for the week ending June 19 increased by 56,000 to 3.469 million. […] Total construction spending decreased 0.3% m/m in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase (from 0.2%) in April. […] Russell 2000 +18.0% YTD S&P 500 +15.0% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.2% YTD Nasdaq Composite +12.7% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE +1.3%, CAC +0.7% Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng closed for holiday, Shanghai -0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.73 @ 75.23 Nat Gas +0.01 @ 3.65 Gold +3.30 @ 1773.70 Silver -0.08 @ 26.12 Copper -0.05 @ 4.24