Morning Notes – Thursday July 8, 2021

/ July 8, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower;
  • The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility and a good chance of sideways to up move from the pre-open levels around 4290.00 – watch for a break above 4305.25
  • Key economic data report due during the day:
    • Unemployment Claims ( 373K vs. 345K est.; prev. 364K) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Side-Down
  • 15-Min: Down
  • 6-Min: Down-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4287..04, 4274.67, and 4171.16
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4303.92, 4314.37, and 4329.79
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4297.00, the high of 7:00 AM on Tuesday and break below 4279.25, the low of 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4349.75 and the index closed at 4358.13 – a spread of about -8.50 points; futures closed at 4349.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.0
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -56.00; Dow by -466, and NASDAQ by -195.75

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney closed up;
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies (from two weeks ago):
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • INR/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (from two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed
    • Precious metals are higher
    • Industrial metals are mixed
    • Most soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
    • 10-years yield closed at 1.286%, down -20.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • 30-years is at 1.903%, down -20.9 basis points;
    • 2-years yield is at 0.220%, down -4.5 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.073, down from 1.222
  • VIX
    • At 20.69 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high =  21.82 on June 21; low =  14.10 on June 29
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • May 2021 was a Doji with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs;
    • Stochastic %K above %D near 100;
    • RSI-9 near 80; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018
    • Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
  • The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 2 was a green candle that gapped up at the open and made all-time highs with almost no lower and  upper shadows
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; near 100
    • RSI (9) is just above 70
  • The week was up +71.64 or +1.7%; the 5-week ATR is 80.14
  • An up week; fourth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4327.48, R1=4380.29, R2=4408.24; S1=4299.53, S2=4246.72; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily
  • A small green long-legged harami candle with small upper shadow;
    • %K crossed above below %D; above 90
    • RSI-9 is turned up above 75; above 8-day EMA
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Declined from the all-time high of 4353.25 at 2:00 PM on Wednesday to 4279.25 by 8:00 AM
    • RSI-21 declined to below 20 after making Bearish Divergence on Wednesday
    • Below EMA20; which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Broke below a Double Top/Horizontal Channel – upper bound 4348.00 and lower bound 4305.25; almost achieved the 61.8% extension target near 4279.00; the 100% extension target is near 4262.50
    • RSI-21 moving up from below 20 to near 40 after making a Bullish Divergence
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 11:00 PM
  • The Bollinger Band is expanded since 2:30 Am with price mostly walking down the lower band
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D higher
  • Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, July 7 in mixed volume. Russell 2000 closed lower. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell  2000 traded in higher volume. The major indices opened higher but then declined during the morning session before turning around midday and recovering the losses and closing higher.

From Briefing.com:

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Related posts