Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher;
- The odds are for an up to a sideways day from the pre-open levels around 4400.00 — watch for a break above 4408.25 and a break below 4391.25 for clarity
- Key economic data report due during the day:
- Unemployment Claims ( 385K vs. 382K est.; prev. 400K) at 8:30 AM
- Trade Balance ( -75.7B vs. -74.2B est.; prev. -71.2B) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4400.23, 4389.09, and 4372.51
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4415.95, 4423.79, and 4428.42
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4408.25, the high of 10:00 AM and break below 4391.25, the low of 11:30 PM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4394.00 and the index closed at 4402.66 – a spread of about -8.50 points; futures closed at 4394.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.50; Dow by +53, and NASDAQ by +25.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Seoul, and Singapore closed lower; Tokyo, Sydney, and Mumbai closed up
- European markets are mostly higher – the UK and Spain are lower
- Currencies (from two weeks ago):
Up Down - EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- INR/USD
- Commodities (from two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Most soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 1.184%, down -9.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 1.832%, down -9.8 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 0.180%, down -3.0 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.004, down from 1.070
- VIX
- At 17.60 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 25.09 on July 19; low = 16.33 on July 23
- Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly |
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Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, August 4 in mostly lower volume. NASDAQ Composite closed higher and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume. Day’s price action was small though the bias was down.
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 decreased 0.5% on Wednesday in a tired session. […] The Nasdaq ended the session in positive territory, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.9%) and Russell 2000 (-1.2%) underperformed the S&P 500.
[…]The 10-yr yield then jumped to 1.21% after the release of the July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET, which increased to a record high of 64.1% (Briefing.com consensus 60.5%). The 10-yr yield settled the session at 1.18%, or one basis point above yesterday’s settlement.
[…]Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, including energy (-2.9%), industrials (-1.4%), and consumer staples (-1.3%) with losses over 1.0%.
[…]The Fed-funds-sensitive 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.17%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 92.27.
[…][…]
- The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July increased to 64.1% (Briefing.com consensus 60.5%) from 60.1% in June. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The July reading is a record high, eclipsing the former high of 64.0% seen in May, and marks the fourteenth straight month of growth for the services sector.
- […]
- The ADP Employment Change report estimated 330,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls in July, which was well below the Briefing.com consensus of 650,000. The June increase was downwardly revised to 680,000 from 692,000.
- The final reading for the July IHS Markit Services PMI checked in at 59.9, which was slightly higher from the preliminary reading of 59.8.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 1.7% following a 5.7% gain in the prior week.
- S&P 500 +17.2% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +14.7% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.7% YTD
- Russell 2000 +11.2% YTD
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.9%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.3%
- Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.9%, Shanghai +0.9%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil -2.62 @ 67.99
- Nat Gas +0.10 @ 4.17
- Gold +1.10 @ 1813.40
- Silver -0.11 @ 25.50
- Copper -0.04 @ 4.34
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