Morning Notes – Monday September 13, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher;
  • The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4466.75 for a change of fortunes
  • No key economic data report due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4474.32, 4457.66, and 4450.29
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4497.78, 4506.90, and 4520.47
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4487.75, the high of 1:00 PM on Friday and break below 4466.75, the high of 8:00 PM

Pre-Open

  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2021) closed at 4449.25 and the index closed at 4458.58 – a spread of about -9.25 points; futures closed at 4449.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +29.00; Dow by +221; and NASDAQ by +93.25

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Seoul closed down
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies (from two weeks ago):
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • INR/USD
    • Dollar index
  • Commodities (from two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are mostly lower
    • Most soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
    • 10-years yield closed at 1.329%, up +1.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • 30-years is at 1.915%, down -0.3 basis points;
    • 2-years yield is at 0.221%, down -1.0 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.108, up from 1.081
  • VIX
    • At 19.22 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high =  24.74 on August 19; low =  15.19 on August 13
    • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • August 2021 was a green candle with small upper and lower shadows; at all-time closing and intra-month highs;
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K above %D near 100;
    • RSI-9 above 80;
    • Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
  • The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 10 was a relatively large red candle small almost no upper and lower shadows; near all-time highs
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D from near 100
    • RSI-9 has declined to near 60
  • The week was down -76.85 or -1.7%; the 5-week ATR is 68.41
  • A down week; second in the last five weeks, and fourth in the last ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4483.87, R1=4510.09, R2=4561.59; S1=4432.37, S2=4406.15; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily
  • A relatively large red candle with small upper and  almost no lower shadow
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D near 0;
    • RSI-9 is below 40; below 8-day EMA;
  • At/below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting down from 4548.00 at 8:00 AM on September 6; bouncing up from 4446.50 at 12:30 AM
    • RSI-21 is near 50 after making a Bullish Divergence at 12:00 PM on Friday
  • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Trending down since 9:30 AM on September 6; bouncing since 1:00 AM
    • RSI-21 is moving up from below 30 to above 5o and after making Bullish Divergence
    • Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 1:45 AM;
  • The Bollinger Band is expanding since 8:00 AM after contracting  a bit
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, September 10 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Major indices have declined for the past few days. No S&P sector closed up for the day.

For the week, the major US indices closed lower in mixed volume. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume. The Asian markets were mostly up but European markets were down. The dollar index closed up, energy futures were up but metals and soft commodities were mostly down. The US Treasury yields were mixed.

From Briefing.com:

The major indices lost about 1% on Friday, as the market faded a positive open and investors digested a mixed court ruling on Apple (AAPL 148.97, -5.10, -3.3%) versus Epic Games. The S&P 500 (-0.8%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and Russell 2000 (-1.0%) closed at session lows.

[…]

The information technology (-1.0%) and communication services (-0.9%) sectors, which are home to AAPL and GOOG, underperformed along with the utilities (-1.4%) and real estate (-1.2%) sectors. No sectors finished higher, as selling accelerated into the close on no news.

[…]

The 10-yr yield increased four basis points to 1.34% while the 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.21%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 92.62. WTI crude futures rose 2.3%, or $1.57, to $69.75/bbl.

[…]
  • The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) after increasing 1.0% in July. The index for final demand, less foods and energy, increased 0.6% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) after increasing 1.0% in July. On a year-over-year basis, the Producer Price Index for final demand was up 8.3% on an unadjusted basis, versus 7.8% in July. That has lifted the index past its record increase from last month. The index for final demand, less foods and energy, was up 6.7% versus 6.2% in July.
  • […]
  • Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% m/m in July (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.6% increase (+1.1%) in June.
[…]
  • S&P 500 +18.7% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +17.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +12.8% YTD