Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:15 AM;
• The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4426.25 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Retail Sales ( 0.7% vs. -0.2% est.; prev. 0.9%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Retail Sales (0.8% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 2.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index ( 19.8 vs 24.2 est. prev. 34.3) at 8:30 AM
  • Import Prices ( 0.4% vs. 0.6% est.; prev. -0.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (73.5 est.; prev. 72.8) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4439.73, 4429.61, and 4416.89;
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4453.85, 4465.40, and 4472.82
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4449.00, the high of 2:00 AM  and break below 4436.25, the low of 3:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2021) closed at 4429.00 and the index closed at 4438.26 – a spread of about -9.25 points; futures closed at 4429.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +17.50; Dow by +166; and NASDAQ by +52.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher – Mumbai was closed for trading
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	Dollar index USD/CHF USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.519%, down -1.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.025%, down -6.7 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.363%, up +8.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.156, up from 1.248
• VIX
  • At 16.63 @ 6:30 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 24.89 on October 1; low =  17.63 on September 24
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, October 14, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume.  Most made strong bullish candles and broke above their downtrend lines from all-time highs. The indices gapped up at the open and then trade higher for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 rallied 1.7% on Thursday, bolstered by positive earnings news, relatively encouraging economic data, and a decline in long-term interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.7%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.6%) performed comparably to the benchmark index, while the Russell 2000 increased 1.4%. The advance was steady and broad-based: all 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher between 1.0% (consumer discretionary) and 2.4% (materials), […] The 2-yr yield decreased two basis points to 0.35%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.1% to 93.99. WTI crude futures rose 1.0%, or $0.77, to $81.28/bbl despite a sizable build in weekly crude inventories (6.09 mln barrels). […] The Producer Price Index for September was a bit softer than expected. The index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.6%) and the index for final demand, less foods and energy, increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%). On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 8.6%, versus 8.3% in August. That is the largest advance since the 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010. […] The latest weekly initial claims report was the best since March 14, 2020. Initial claims for the week ending October 9 decreased by 36,000 to 293,000 (Briefing.com consensus 332,000). Continuing claims for the week ending October 2 decreased by 134,000 to 2.593 million, which was also the lowest since March 14, 2020. […] S&P 500 +18.2% YTD Russell 2000 +15.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite +15.0% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +14.1% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +1.4%, FTSE +0.9%, CAC +1.3% Asia: Nikkei +1.5%, Hang Seng closed for holiday, Shanghai -0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.93 @ 81.42 Nat Gas +0.01 @ 5.66 Gold +6.80 @ 1799.10 Silver +0.46 @ 23.55 Copper +0.11 @ 4.61