Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; moving up  since 5:15 AM – from 3695.00 to around 3720.00
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3732.50
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 229K vs 215K est.; prev. 232K ) at 8:30 AM
  • Philly Fed Index ( -3.3 vs. 5.1 est.; prev. 2.6) at 8:30 AM
  • Building Permits ( 1.70M vs. 1.78M est.; prev. 1.82M) at 8:30 AM
  • Housing Starts ( 1.55M vs. 1.70 M est.; prev. 1.81M) at10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3722.30, 3705.68, and 3694.12
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3773.24, 3804.00, and 3837.56
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3732.50, the high at 4:00 AM and a break below 3695.00, the low at 5:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 3795.50 and the index closed at 3789.99 – a spread of about +5.50 points; futures closed at 3793.50 for the day; the fair value is +2.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -61.00; Dow by -432; and NASDAQ by -209.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Seoul closed higher
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.397%, up +15.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.425%, up +34.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.222%, up +56.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.175, up from 0.269
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.028, up from 0.145
• VIX
  • At 31.1 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 35.05 on June 13; low = 24.94 on May 4
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, June 15, in higher volume. The major indices opened higher and then mostly traded sideways until the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM. Then after a volatile move, they moved higher before giving up some of the gains in the final half-hour of trading. Most indices made indecisive spinning top candles near the open of the previous day’s red candles. A break above will complete Morning Star patterns but a move down will resume the downtrend.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The accompanying summary of economic projections revealed upward revisions to the median estimate for PCE inflation (to 5.2% from 4.3%) and core CPE inflation (to 4.3% from 4.1%) this year, a downward revision to the change in real GDP (to 1.7% from 2.8%), a higher unemployment rate (to 3.7% from 3.5%), and, most importantly, a sharp upward revision to the median estimate for the fed funds rate (to 3.4% from 1.9%). […] the 2-yr note yield was at 3.23%, down 20 basis points from where it settled on Tuesday, whereas the 10-yr note yield was at 3.32%, down 16 basis points from where it settled on Tuesday. […] Advancers led decliners by a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and the Nasdaq; 21 of 30 Dow components ended with a gain; and ten out of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher. The lone sector holdout was the energy sector (-2.1%), which got clipped by lower oil prices ($115.25, -3.68, -3.1%) […] The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) gained 2.6% versus a 1.0% gain for the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). […] The MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 6.6% week-over-week, with purchase applications up 8% and refinancing applications up 4% Total retail sales decreased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.9%) in April. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus +0.7%) following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.6%) in April. […] The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June was weaker than expected at -1.3 (Briefing.com consensus 3.0), but it was improved from the -11.6 reading in April. Nonetheless, a number below 0.0 is still indicative of a contraction in manufacturing activity. The Import-Export Price Index for May showed a 0.3% decline in nonfuel imports and a 2.9% increase in non-agricultural exports. That left the year-over-year changes at 5.9% and 19.3%, respectively. Business Inventories increased 1.2% month-over-month in April, as expected, following an upwardly revised 2.4% increase (from 2.0%) in March. The June NAHB Housing Market Index dipped to 67 (Briefing.com consensus 68) from 69 in May. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -15.4% YTD S&P 400: -18.7% YTD S&P 500: -20.5% YTD Russell 2000: -22.9% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -29.1% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +1.4%, FTSE +1.2%, CAC +1.4% Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai +1.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil -3.68 @ 115.25 Nat Gas +0.24 @ 7.43 Gold +6.80 @ 1819.80 Silver +0.49 @ 21.42 Copper +0.02 @ 4.15