Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are a bit higher at 9:15 AM; moved down more than 40 points from the high of 3713.50 at 4:30 AM
• The odds are for a choppy day with a greater chance of going up than down from the pre-market levels around 3675.00 – watch for a break above 3713.50 and a break below 3668.50 for clarity
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Capacity Utilization ( 79.00% vs 79.2% est.; prev. 78.9% ) at 9:15 AM
  • Industrial Production ( 0.2% vs 0.4% est.; prev. 1.4% ) at 9:15 AM
  • CB Leading Index ( -0.4% est.; prev. -0.3% ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3672.58, 3646.92, and 3639.77
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3687.33, 3705.68, and 3728.18
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3713.50, the high at 4:30 AM and a break below 3668.50, the low at 8:00 PM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 3673.50 and the index closed at 3666.77 – a spread of about +6.75 points; futures closed at 3671.25 for the day; the fair value is +2.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are a bit higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.25; Dow by +40; and NASDAQ by +34.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hongkong, and Singapore closed higher; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed lower
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.229%, up +31.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.287%, up +21.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.106%, up +47. basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.123, up from 0.283
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.051, up from 0.163
• VIX
  • At 32.70 @ 9:00 AM; down from the last close; at/below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 35.05 on June 13; low = 24.94 on May 4
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, June 16, in mostly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume. The major indices gapped down at the open and then mostly drifted lower for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The S&P 500 (-3.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (-4.1%) were on a slow decline most of the day with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.4%) exhibiting more volatile price action. […] sending the 10-yr yield lower by nine basis points to 3.31% while the 2-yr yield fell eleven basis points to 3.16%. […] The declining issues outpaced the advancing issues by a greater than 9-to-1 margin at the NYSE and an almost 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. Today’s session saw above-average volume with more than 1.3 bln shares changing hands at the NYSE floor. All 11 of the S&P 500 sectors closed in the red with the selling paced by energy (-5.6%), consumer discretionary (-4.8%), information technology (-4.1%), and materials (-3.7%). The best performing sectors were the consumer staples (-0.7%), health care (-1.5%), and the utilities (-1.9%), but they could not stay out of the red. […] Housing starts declined 14.4% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.549 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.730 million) while building permits — a leading indicator — declined 7.0% month-over-month to 1.695 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.800 million). […] Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 11 decreased by 3,000 to 229,000 (Briefing.com consensus 215,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 4 increased by 3,000 to 1.312 million. […] The Philadelphia Fed survey fell to -3.3 in June (Briefing.com consensus 5.0) from 2.6 in May. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -17.6% YTD S&P 400 -22.5% YTD S&P 500 -23.1% YTD Russell 2000 -26.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite -32.0% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -3.3%, FTSE -3.1%, CAC -2.4% Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -2.2%, Shanghai -0.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.03 @ 115.28 Nat Gas +0.04 @ 7.47 Gold +30.30 @ 1850.10 Silver +0.47 @ 21.89 Copper -0.04 @ 4.11