Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM; moving within a symmetrical triangle on intraday charts since 10:15 AM on Wednesday
• The odds are for a sideways to down elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3974.75 or a break below 3945.50 for clarity
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ( -12.3 vs. 0.9 est.; prev. -3.3) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 251K vs. 240K est.; prev. 244K) at 8:30 AM
  • CB Leading Index ( -0.6% est.; prev. 0.4% ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3948.69, 3836.41, and 3925.19
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3969.56, 3974.39, and 4017.17
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3974.75, the high at 1:45 AM and a break below 3945.50, the low at 4:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 3962.50,  and the index closed at 3959.90 – a spread of about +2.50 points; the futures closed at 3962.50; the fair value is 0.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -8.75, Dow by -107; and NASDAQ by -1.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore closed down; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed up
• European markets are mixed – France, Spain, Switzerland, and STOXX 600 are higher; Germany, the UK, and Itlay are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	EUR/USD USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.036%, up +12.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.170%, up +5.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.234%, up +25.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.198, up from -0.070
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.134, up from 0.206
• VIX
  • At 23.91 @ 6:30 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 29.06 on July 13; low = 23.40 on July 20
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, July 20, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. The market opened sideways, then moved higher in early morning trading, then gave up the advance before moving up again in the late afternoon.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The market opened modestly lower before finding momentum to the upside. […] The mega caps did some heavy lifting today with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closing up 1.5% versus a 0.6% gain in the S&P 500 and a 0.7% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). […] Communication services (+1.0%), information technology (+1.6%), and consumer discretionary (+1.8%) were some of the best performers on the day thanks, […] As for the laggards, the countercyclical sectors, utilities (-1.4%), consumer staples (-0.7%), and health care (-1.1%), led the underperformers. […] With buyers favoring growthy areas, the Russell 3000 Growth Index (+1.2%) outpaced the Russell 3000 Value Index, which closed up 0.4%. The 2-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.24% and the 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.04% after testing 2.94% in early morning action. […] Existing home sales decreased 5.4% month-over-month in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million (Briefing.com consensus 5.40 million) versus 5.41 million in May. Total sales in June were down 14.2% from a year ago. […]  Dow Jones Industrial Average: -12.3% YTD S&P 400: -15.6% YTD S&P 500: -16.9% YTD Russell 2000: -18.6% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -24.0% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.4%, CAC -0.3% Asia: Nikkei +2.7%, Hang Seng +1.1%, Shanghai +0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.86 @ 99.86 Nat Gas +0.69 @ 7.87 Gold -8.70 @ 1701.00 Silver -0.04 @ 18.59 Copper +0.02 @ 3.30