Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are sharply lower to the 4105.00 level at 8:50 AM following the Non-Farm Payroll report after moving between 4166.25 and 4146.50 from 1:00 PM on Thursday to 8:30 AM
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4136.00 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change ( 528K vs. 250K est.; prev. 398K) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Rate ( 3.5% vs. 3.6% est.; prev. 3.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.5% vs. 0.3% est..; prev. 0.4% ) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4113.32, 4107.96, and 4090.24
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4135.43, 4146.95, and 4160.63
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4136.00, the low at 10:30 AM on Thursday and a break below 4100.00, the low at 4:00 AM on Wednesday

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 4153.25,  and the index closed at 4151.94 – a spread of about +1.25 points; the futures closed at 4152.25; the fair value is +1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -28.75, Dow by -127; and NASDAQ by -113.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are mostly lower – Spain and Switzerland are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 2.676%, down -23.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 2.961%, down -11.2 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.054%, down -4.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.378, down from -0.190
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.285, up from 0.134
• VIX
  • At 22.44 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 29.06 on July 13; low = 21.21 on July 29
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday, August 4, in lower volume. NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded closed higher. The day’s price range was small. The major indices opened lower and then moved within a narrow range for the rest of the day. The indices are at resistance levels – prior highs and 10-day SMA.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Brazil’s central bank raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 13.75% and the Bank of England raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%. The BOE also forecast a recession in the UK starting in the fourth quarter […] WTI crude oil futures settled down 2.7% to $88.49/bbl. Natural gas futures settled down 2.1% to $8.13/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures settled down 4.8% to $2.79/gal. This resulted in the S&P 500 energy sector (-3.6%) lagging by a wide margin. Aside from energy, the worst performing sector was consumer staples (-0.8%), […] The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed up 0.9% with most components exhibiting gains […] Another bright spot in the market was the consumer discretionary sector (+0.5%). […] Advancers led decliners by a 7-to-5 margin at the Nasdaq while decliners led advancers by an 11-to-10 margin at the NYSE. Separately, Treasury yields pulled back today. The 2-yr note yield fell six basis points to 3.04% while the 10-yr note yield fell seven basis points to 2.68%. […] Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 30 increased by 6,000 to 260,000. That was in-line with the Briefing.com consensus estimate. Continuing claims for the week ending July 23 increased by 48,000 to 1.416 million. […] The trade deficit narrowed to $79.6 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$81.7 billion) from an upwardly revised $84.9 billion (from $85.5 billion) in May. That narrowing was the result of exports being $4.3 billion more than May exports and imports being $1.0 billion less than May imports. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -9.9% YTD S&P 400: -12.4% YTD S&P 500: -12.9% YTD Russell 2000: -15.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -18.7% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE +0.0%, CAC +0.6% Asia: Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng +2.1%, Shanghai +0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil -2.42 @ 88.49 Nat Gas -0.18 @ 8.13 Gold +28.70 @ 1807.40 Silver +0.17 @ 20.14 Copper +0.02 @ 3.49