Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:00 AM; the futures are moving up since 3:30 AM from 4119.75; up more than 15 points since 6:45 Am to 4140.00
• The odds are for an up to sideways day with volatility – watch for a break above 4143.50 and a break below 4125.00 for clarity
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Durable Goods Orders ( 0.9% est.; prev. 2.0% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Durable Goods Orders ( 0.2% est.; prev. 0.4% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Pending Home Sales ( -2.6% est.; prev. -8.6% ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4124.03, 4112.21, and 4090.24
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4141.38, 4159.77, and 4163.10
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4143.50, the high at 1:30 PM on Tuesday and a break below 4125.00, the low at 6:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 4131.00, and the index closed at 4128.73 – a spread of about +2.25 points; the futures closed at 4130.50; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.00, Dow by +20; and NASDAQ by +25.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore closed down; Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed up
• European markets are mixed – Germany, France, Switzerland, and STOXX 600 are higher; the UK, Spain, and Italy are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.054%, up +25.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.256%, up +25.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.333%, up +7.4 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.279, up from -0.462
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.202, down from 0.208
• VIX
  • At 23.99 @ 7:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 24.68 on August 2; low = 19.12 on August 12
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Tuesday, August 23, in lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 closed higher. The day’s price range was narrow. The major indices mostly drifted sideways. All but two S&P sectors – Energy and Technology – closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The 10-yr note yield remaining above 3.00%, rising oil prices, and a weak July new home sales report also acted as limiting factors today. Market breadth reflected the general lack of conviction with advancers roughly in line with decliners at both the NYSE and Nasdaq at the close. […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), and S&P 500 all closed with a modest loss. The Russell 3000 Growth Index and the Russell 3000 Value Index both closed little changed on the day. Notably, small caps fared somewhat better than their peers. The Russell 2000 closed with a 0.3% gain. […] The 10-yr note yield, which was at 3.07% before the data, fell to 2.99% but settled the day at 3.05%. The 2-yr note yield was at 3.32% ahead of the reports, but settled at 3.28%. […] New home sales declined 12.6% month-over-month in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 580,000) from a downwardly revised 585,000 (from 590,000) in June. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 29.6%. […] The August IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading was 51.3 versus a prior reading of 52.2. The August IHS Markit Services PMI preliminary reading was 44.1 versus the prior reading of 47.3. Dow Jones Industrial Average: -9.4% YTD S&P 400: -11.3% YTD S&P 500: -13.4% YTD Russell 2000: -14.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -20.9% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.3%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.3% Asia: Nikkei -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Shanghai -0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +3.13 @ 93.76 Nat Gas -0.49 @ 9.25 Gold +9.20 @ 1759.30 Silver +0.09 @ 18.98 Copper +0.04 @ 3.69