Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM; declining since 4:00 AM – down more than 25 points
• The odds are for a down to a sideways elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3965.50 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Retail Sales ( 0.3% vs. -0.1% est.; prev. -0.4%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Retail Sales ( -0.3% vs. 0.0% est.; prev. 0.0% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index ( -1.5 vs. -12.7 est.; prev. -31.3) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 213K vs. 225K est.; prev. 218K) at 8:30 AM
  • Import Prices ( -1.0% vs. -1.3% est.; prev. -1.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (-9.9 vs. 2.4Est.; prev.; 6.2) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3912.18, 3899.50, and 3886.75
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3949.49, 3961.94, 3975.07
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3965.50, the high of 8:45 AM and a break below 3929.00, the low of 3:30 PM on Wednesday

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3964.25, and the index closed at 3946.01 – a spread of about +18.25 points; the futures closed at 3965.50; the fair value is -1.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.50, Dow up by +41, and NASDAQ down by -33.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed
• European markets are mixed
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.432%, up +29.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.473%, up +21.8 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.784%, up +30.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.352, down from -0.350
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.041, down from 0.122
• VIX
  • At 26.18 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 28.15 on September 13; low = 21.67 on August 26
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, September 14, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume. The major indices traded within a relatively narrow range and mostly moved sideways.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The major indices saw some whipsaw price action, but ultimately closed with modest gains. […] Advancers led decliners by an 11-to-10 margin at the NYSE while decliners led advancers by the same margin at the Nasdaq. S&P 500 sector performance also reflects mixed market action with roughly half of the 11 sectors closing in positive territory. Real estate (-1.4%) and materials (-1.2%) were today’s top laggards while energy (+2.9%) and consumer discretionary (+1.3%) rose to the top of the leaderboard. […] WTI crude oil futures settled 1.3% higher to $88.58/bbl. The 2-yr note yield, at 3.81% before the August PPI release, settled at 3.77% and the 10-yr note yield, at 3.46% before the release, settled at 3.41%. The US Dollar Index was down 0.1% to 109.67. […] 09/10 MBA Mortgage Applications Index -1.2%; prior was -0.8% Aug PPI -0.1% vs Briefing.com consensus of -0.1%; prior was -0.4% revised from -0.5% […] Aug Core PPI 0.4% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.3%; prior was 0.3% revised from 0.2% 09/10 EIA Crude Oil Inventories +2.44M; prior was +8.84M Dow Jones Industrial Average: -14.3% YTD S&P 400: -14.6% YTD S&P 500: -17.2% YTD Russell 2000: -18.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -25.1% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.2%, FTSE -1.5%, CAC -0.4% Asia: Nikkei -2.8%, Hang Seng -2.5%, Shanghai -0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.09 @ 88.58 Nat Gas +0.76 @ 9.09 Gold -5.90 @ 1708.50 Silver +0.08 @ 19.57 Copper -0.02 @ 3.52