Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM; down more than 50 points from 3:30 PM; moving sideways with large fluctuations since 2:15 AM between 3716.00 and 3673.00
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3711.50 for a change in sentiments
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • Final GDP ( -0.6% vs. -0.6% est.; prev. -0.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 193K vs. 215K est.; prev. 209K) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3673.92, 3646.01, and 3635.28
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3696.53, 3717.69, and 3736.74
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3711.50, the high of 7:15 AM and a break below 3673.00, the low of 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3732.50, and the index closed at 3719.04 – a spread of about +13.50 points; the futures closed at 3732.00; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -48.75, Dow by -306, and NASDAQ by -189.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Singapore closed lower; Tokkyo, Sydney, and Seoul closed higher
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.794%, up +38.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.741%, up +27.2 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.139%, up +35.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.345, down from -0.372
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.053, down from 0.057
• VIX
  • At 31.92 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 35.05 on June 13; low = 22.64 on September 9
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, September 28, in mixed volume. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.

The major indices opened higher and then mostly traded higher for the rest of the day.

Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite have broken below their respective June lows. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 200, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market index are near their lows.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The S&P 500, which set a new low for the year yesterday (3623.29), broke a six-session losing streak and closed above the 3,700 level. […] The 10-yr note yield breached the 4.00% level overnight […] The 10-yr note yield dropped 26 basis points on the day to 3.71% and the 2-yr note yield dropped 21 basis points to 3.71%. The U.S. Dollar Index also fell noticeably after the announcement, down 1.2% to 112.75 with GBP/USD +1.4% to 1.0879. […] Despite losses for Apple, the information technology sector was able to squeeze out a 0.9% gain. Notably, it finished the session in last place for the 11 S&P 500 sectors. Energy (+4.4%) and communication services (+3.2%) rose to the top of the leaderboard. […] Weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index showed a 3.7% drop following last week’s 3.8% increase August Advance report for International Trade in Goods showed a deficit of $87.3 billion versus the revised deficit of $90.2 billion (from $89.1 billion) in July. The Advance report for Retail Inventories rose 1.4% versus the increase of 1.1% in July. The Advance report for Wholesale Inventories rose 1.3% versus July’s revised increase of 0.6% (form 0.8%) August Pending Home Sales dropped 2.0% (Briefing.com consensus -0.5%) following a revised 0.8% decrease (from 1.0%) in July Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 0.215 million barrels after last week’s 1.14 million barrel build Dow Jones Industrial Average: -18.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -20.3% YTD S&P 500: -22.0% YTD Russell 2000: -23.6% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -29.4% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.2% Asia: Nikkei -1.5%, Hang Seng -3.4%, Shanghai -1.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil +3.19 @ 81.96 Nat Gas +0.14 @ 6.93 Gold +35.20 @ 1670.70 Silver +0.59 @ 18.93 Copper +0.09 @ 3.38