Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are a bit higher at 8:00 AM; drifting sideways since  12:30 AM
• The odds are for an up-to-sideways day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3977.75 and a break below 3956.50 for clarity
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ( 196K est.; prev. 239K) at 8:15 AM
  • Prelim GDP ( 2.8% est.; prev. 2.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim GDP Price Index ( 4.1% est.; prev. 4.1% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Good Trade Balance ( -90.7B est.; prev. -92.2B) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Wholesale Inventories ( 0.5% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Chicago PMI ( 47.0 est.; prev. 45.2) at 10:00 AM
  • JOLTS JOb Openings ( 10.24M est.; prev. 10.72M) at 10:00 AM
  • Pending Home Sales ( -5.8% est.; prev. -10.2% ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3952.29, 3944.33, and 3937.65
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3968.94, 3976.77, and 3997.60
• The key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3977.75, the high at 4:15 AM, and a break below 3956.50, the low of 6:45 PM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3961.25, and the index closed at 3957.63 – a spread of about +3.50 points; the futures closed at 3962.00; the fair value is -0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 6:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.00, Dow by +21, and NASDAQ by +42.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East mainly closed higher – Tokyo closed down
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.748%, down -5.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.803%, down -17.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.471%, up +12.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.723, down from -0.546
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.055, down from 0.183
• VIX
  • At 22.07 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 26.59 on November 10; low = 20.31 on November 24
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday, November 29, in lower volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Wilshire 5000 TotalMarket Index closed lower.

The major indices opened higher but then declined after the first hour of trading to the lows by late morning. They then mostly drifted higher in the afternoon.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Today’s trade started on a more upbeat note, aiming to rebound from yesterday’s retreat. The wind got knocked out of the market’s sails, however, around 11:00 a.m. ET […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) logged a 0.9% loss versus a 0.3% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). After the initial leg lower, the market was able to inch off session lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average snuck into positive territory in the late afternoon, climbing off a 0.6% loss earlier. […] Advancers led decliners by a roughly 3-to-2 margin at the NYSE and were just about even with decliners at the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) were pockets of relative strength today. Roughly half of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green. Real estate (+1.7%) and energy (+1.3%) sat atop the leaderboard while information technology (-1.0%) and utilities (-0.7%) fell to the bottom of the pack. […] Treasury yields settled noticeably higher than levels seen earlier. The 2-yr note yield, which flirted with 4.40% earlier, settled at 4.47%. The 10-yr note yield, which hit 3.65% overnight, settled at 3.75%. […] September FHFA Housing Price Index 0.1%; Prior -0.7% September S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10.4% (Briefing.com consensus 10.7%); Prior 13.1% November Consumer Confidence 100.2 (Briefing.com consensus 100.0); Prior was revised to 102.2 from 102.5 […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -6.8% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -11.4% YTD Russell 2000: -18.2% YTD S&P 500: -17.0% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -29.8% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.2%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.1% Asia: Nikkei -0.5%, Hang Seng +5.2%, Shanghai +2.3% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.24 @ 78.42 Nat Gas +0.05 @ 7.25 Gold +9.50 @ 1748.70 Silver +0.02 @ 20.92 Copper +0.03 @ 3.64