Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM; more than 140 points rise within minutes following the release of the CPI report at 8:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4180.25 and a break below 4100.25
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • NFIB Small Business Index ( 91.9 vs. 90.4 est.; prev. 01.3) at 6:00 AM
  • CPI m/m ( 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
  • CPI y/y ( 7.3% est.; prev. 7.7%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core CPI m/m ( 0.3% est.; prev/ 0.3%) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4080.48, 4041.80, and 4026.63
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4119.97, 4153.39, and 4201.68
• The key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4180.25, the high of 8:30 AM, and a break below 4100.25, the low of 8:36 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4025.75, and the index closed at 3990.56 – a spread of about +35.25 points; the futures closed at 4025.00; the fair value is -0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +104.00, Dow by +708, and NASDAQ by +423.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Seoul closed lower.
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.611%, down -9.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.576%, down -17.4 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.394%, down -4.8 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.782, down from -0.739
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.035, down from 0.047
• VIX
  • At 22.38 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 26.59 on November 10; low = 18.95 on December 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, December 12, in mixed volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume. The major indices opened up, gradually drifted higher until 2:30 PM, and then rallied up even more.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The S&P 500 faded back to test Friday’s closing level (3,934.8) shortly after the open, but buyers showed up and defended that line. The main indices oscillated around a narrow trading range for most of the day before taking a noticeable turn higher with about an hour left in the session. Every sector participated in the move, suggesting it could be some type of buy program. […] Every S&P 500 sector came along for the late upside ride, led by energy (+2.5%), information technology (+2.2%), and utilities (+2.3%). The consumer discretionary (+0.4%) and communication services (+0.7%) sectors showed the slimmest gains, but joined in on the rally effort. The 2-yr Treasury note yield rose five basis points today to 4.39% and the 10-yr note yield rose four basis points to 3.61% […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -6.4% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -12.2% YTD Russell 2000: -19.0% YTD S&P 500: -16.3% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -28.8% YTD […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.4%, CAC -0.4% Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -2.2%, Shanghai -0.9% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.64 @ 73.10 Nat Gas +0.31 @ 6.60 Gold -20.10 @ 1790.90 Silver -0.31 @ 23.46 Copper -0.06 @ 3.80