Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM, trending down since 11:30 AM on Friday
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility; good chance of a sideways to up move from the pre-ope levels around 4115.00-  – watch for a break above 4124.50 and a break below 4106.25 for clarity
• No major economic data report is due during the day

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4100.02, 4094.06, and 4076.71
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4145.40, 4159.17, and 4180.16
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4124.50, the high at 8:15 AM, and a break below 4106.25, the low at 5:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4147.75, and the index closed at 4136.48 – a spread of about +11.25 points; the futures closed at 4147.75; the fair value is 0.0
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -31.50, Dow by -191, and NASDAQ by -133.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Singapore closed up
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.623, up +13.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.674%, up +1.8 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.303%, up +10.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.680, up from -0.710
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.051, down from 0.172
• VIX
  • At 19.69 @ 7:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 17.06 on February 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, February 3, in lower volume. The major indices gapped down at the opened lower but turned around immediately and moved into positive territory. They made day’s’ highs in the late morning before trading lower for the rest of the day DNA closing near the lows.

For the week, the major US indices mostly closed higher in most higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Markets in Asia closed mixed, and the European markets closed higher. The dollar index was up. The energy futures and metals – precious and industrial – futures closed lower. The soft commodities closed mostly higher. The US Treasury yields were mixed.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Treasuries sold off sharply in response to the data releases. The 2-yr note yield rose 21 basis points to 4.29% and the 10-yr note yield rose 14 basis points to 3.53%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.2% to 102.96. […] Equities sold off in a broad and orderly fashion today. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed down 1.5%, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) closed down 1.2%, the S&P 500 closed down 1.0%, and the Nasdaq closed down 1.6%. All 11 S&P 500 sectors registered losses ranging from 0.1% (financials) to 3.1% (consumer discretionary). Nasdaq Composite: +14.7% YTD Russell 2000: +12.8% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +11.4% YTD S&P 500: +7.7% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.4% YTD […] January Nonfarm Payrolls 517K (Briefing.com consensus 190K); Prior was revised to 260K from 223K; January Nonfarm Private Payrolls 443K (Briefing.com consensus 175K); Prior was revised to 269K from 220K; January Unemployment Rate 3.4% (Briefing.com consensus 3.6%); Prior 3.5%; January Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%; January Average Workweek 34.7 (Briefing.com consensus 34.4); Prior was revised to 34.4 from 34.3 […] January IHS Markit Services PMI – Final 46.8; Prior 46.6 January ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 55.2% (Briefing.com consensus 50.3%); Prior was revised to 49.2% from 49.6% […]