Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed at 8:00 AM, moving near the middle of an ascending triangle on intraday charts, which is a typically bullish pattern
• The odds are for a sideways day – watch for a break above 4133.25 and or a break below 4113.00 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day
  • Trade Balance ( -68.5B est.; prev. -61.5b) at 8:30 AM
  • Fed Chair Powell Speach at 12:00 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4093.38, 4076.71, and 4066.36
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4124.63, 4145.40, and 4159.17
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4133.25, the high at 4:30 AM, and a break below 4113.00, the low at 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4122.75, and the index closed at 4111.08 – a spread of about +11.75 points; the futures closed at 4123.50; the fair value is -0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 6:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.25, Dow down by -47, and NASDAQ up by +36.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Seoul closed up; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Singapore closed down
• European markets are mostly higher – Germany and Switzerland are down
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.634, up +10.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.672%, down -1.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.483%, up +26.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.849, down from -0.698
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.038, down from 0.166
• VIX
  • At 19.49 @ 7:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 17.06 on February 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, February 6, in lower volume. The major indices gapped down at the opened lower and then mostly traded sideways – a bit lower than Friday’s close. The day’s price range was small, and most filled the da’s open gap. Most made Doji or similar indecisive candles.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The indices started the session in a southerly direction, and while they rebounded from their early lows that saw the S&P 500 slip below 4,100, they could never sustain any upward momentum. Instead, they spent much of the day moving laterally in a relatively tight trading range below their flatlines. […] Monday’s session was a day of consolidation for the market following its big run to begin the year. […] The 2-yr note yield jumped 17 basis points to 4.46% and the 10-yr note yield rose 10 basis points to 3.63%. In turn, the U.S. Dollar Index jumped 0.7% to 103.61. […] The communication services (-1.3%), information technology (-1.2%), and materials (-1.1%) sectors were today’s biggest losers. The lone sectors to end the day in positive territory were utilities (+0.9%) and consumer staples (+0.02%). […] Decliners led advancers by a 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. Nasdaq Composite: +13.6% YTD Russell 2000: +11.2% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +10.2% YTD S&P 500: +7.1% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.2% YTD […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.8%, FTSE -0.8%, CAC -1.3% Asia: Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng -2.0%, Shanghai -0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.93 @ 74.21 Nat Gas +0.03 @ 2.44 Gold +3.80 @ 1880.50 Silver -0.14 @ 22.25 Copper -0.01 @ 4.04