Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:15 AM, moved down more than 30 points from  the 3:00 AM high of 4098.00
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4098 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day
  • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 65.0 est.; prev. 64.9) at 10:00 AM
  • Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( prev. 3.9% ) at 10:00 AM
  • Federal Budget ( -40.5B est.; prev. -85.0B) at 2:00 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4037.20, 4015.55, and 4005.28
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4088.39, 4092.67, and 4115.31
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4098.00, the high at 3:00 AM, and a break below 4060.75, the low at 7:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4092.00, and the index closed at 4081.50 – a spread of about +10.50 points; the futures closed at 4091.75; the fair value is +0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -29.50, Dow by -185, and NASDAQ by -143.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Singapore closed up
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.683, up +19.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.744%, up +11.6 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.429%, up +24.7 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.746, down from -0.689
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.061, down from 0.135
• VIX
  • At 21.73 @ 6:15 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 17.06 on February 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, February 9, in mixed volume. The major indices gapped up at the open but turned around immediately and traded lower for the rest fo the day, closing near the lows for the day.

The major indices made relatively large red candles with almost small upper and lower shadows. Most are within their respective congestion zones. The market sentiment has turned decidedly bearish.

All three S&P sectors closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The 2-yr note yield, which slipped to 4.40% overnight, settled the day at 4.52%, and the 10-yr note yield, which saw 3.58% overnight, settled the session at 3.69%. […] The S&P 500 communication services sector (-2.8%) was today’s biggest loser, […] All 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the day with a loss. Other key laggards included the financials (-1.2%), industrial (-0.9%), health care (-0.9%), and information technology (-0.5%) sectors. […] Declining stocks led advancing stocks by a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. Nasdaq Composite: +12.6% YTD Russell 2000: +8.7% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +8.3% YTD S&P 500: +6.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.7% YTD Reviewing today’s economic data: Initial claims for the week ending February 4 increased by 13,000 to 196,000 (Briefing.com consensus 194,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending increased by 38,000 to 1.688 million. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +1.0% Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng +1.6%, Shanghai +1.2% Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.83 @ 77.65 Nat Gas +0.01 @ 2.41 Gold -14.10 @ 1877.40 Silver -0.31 @ 22.11 Copper +0.03 @ 4.08