Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed at 9:15 AM, moved down more than 10 points from  the 7:30 AM high of 4115.00
• The odds are for an up-to-sideways day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4115.00 and a break below 4096.25 for clarity
• No major economic data report is due during the day

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4077.79, 4063.18, and 4060.79
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4100.00, 4115.31, and 4132.05
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4115.00, the high at 7:30 AM, and a break below 4096.25, the low at 5:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4100.00, and the index closed at 4090.46 – a spread of about +9.50 points; the futures closed at 4099.75; the fair value is +0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00, Dow down by -25, and NASDAQ up by +36.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai closed up
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.744, up +22.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.827%, up +19.4 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.511%, up +31.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.767, down from -0.681
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.083, down from 0.115
• VIX
  • At 21.37 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 17.06 on February 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Friday, February 10, in mostly lower volume. The major indices opened lower and traded sideways for most of the day before climbing near then end.

For the week, the major US indices closed lower in lower volume. Most markets in Asia and Europe closed lower. The dollar index closed up, the energy futures were up, the metals were down, and soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields inched up. All but one S&P sector – Energy – closed lower for the week.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed with modest gains while the Nasdaq finished the day with a decline. […] Advancers led decliners by an 11-to-10 margin at the NYSE while decliners led advancers by roughly the same margin at the Nasdaq. […] On the flip side, the energy sector (+3.9%) logged the biggest gain by a wide margin […] The 10-yr note yield rose six basis points to 3.74%, losing ground after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed year ahead inflation expectations increasing to 4.2% from 3.9%, while the 2-yr note yield fell one basis point to 4.51%. Nasdaq Composite: +12.0% YTD Russell 2000: +9.0% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +8.6% YTD S&P 500: +6.5% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.2% YTD [..] February Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim 66.4 (Briefing.com consensus 65.0); Prior 64.9 […] The Treasury Budget for January showed a deficit of $38.8 bln versus a surplus of $118.7 bln a year ago. The Treasury Budget data is not seasonally adjusted, so the January deficit cannot be compared to the deficit of $85.0 bln for December.