Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM; bounced up more than 20 points  from a low of 3995.50 and 6:L30 AM after breaking a support level around 3998.00
• The odds are for a down day with a good chance of a sideways move from the pre-open levels around 4010.00 – watch for a break above 4020.50 and a break below 3995.50 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3989.79, 3973.75, and 3949.06
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4007.86, 4016.06, and 4035.40
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4020.75, the high at 7:30 AM, and a break below 3995.50, the low at 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4006.25, and the index closed at 3997.34 – a spread of about +9.00 points; the futures closed at 4005.75; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.75, Dow by +36, and NASDAQ by +28.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed down
• European markets are lower – Switzerland is higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.943, up +26.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.966%, up +26.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.695%, up +22.4 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.752, up from -0.797
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.023, down from 0.031
• VIX
  • At 23.16 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 25.84 on December 13, 2022; low = 18.11 on February 15
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, February 21, in mixed volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume.

The major indices gapped down at the open and traded lower for the rest of the day, closing at the lows. All S&P sectors closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Including today’s losses, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has given back all of its 2023 gains, down 0.1% on the year. The S&P 500 for its part closed the session just a whisker shy of the 4,000 level. The 2-yr note yield rose 12 basis points today to 4.73% and the 10-yr note yield rose 13 basis points to 3.96%. […] All 11 sectors closed with a loss, but energy (-0.3%) and consumer staples (-0.3%) were the only sectors to decline less than 1.0%. […] Nasdaq Composite: +9.8% YTD Russell 2000: +7.2% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +7.0% YTD S&P 500: +4.1% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.1% YTD Reviewing today’s economic data: February IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI – Prelim 47.8; Prior 46.9 February IHS Markit Services PMI – Prelim 50.5; Prior 46.8 January Existing Home Sales 4.00 mln (Briefing.com consensus 4.12 mln); Prior was revised to 4.03 mln from 4.02 mln […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.4% Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -1.7%, Shanghai +0.5% Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.28 @ 76.29 Nat Gas -0.22 @ 2.07 Gold -10.00 @ 1841.30 Silver +0.13 @ 21.87 Copper +0.10 @ 4.21