Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM, swinging between 4023.50 and 4009.25 since 3:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4009.25 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Prelim GDP ( 2.7% vs. 2.9% est.; prev. 2.9%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim GDP Price Index (3.9% vs. 3.5% est.; prev. 3.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 192K vs. 200K est.; prev. 194K) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3976.90, 3964.95, and 3949.06
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4017.37, 4035.40, and 4052.35
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4023.50, the high at 8:15 AM, and a break below 4011.25, the low at 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4000.25, and the index closed at 3991.05 – a spread of about +9.25 points; the futures closed at 3999.00; the fair value is +1.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +14.00, Dow by +45, and NASDAQ by +95.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly down – Seoul closed up, and Tokyo was closed
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.957, up +30.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.943%, up +23.3 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.700%, up +27.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.737, up from -0.776
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.0111, down from 0.057
• VIX
  • At 21.97 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 25.84 on December 13, 2022; low = 18.11 on February 15
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, February 22, in mixed volume. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 200 closed higher.  S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume.

The major indices opened lower but then turned around and traded higher until the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 2:00 PM, and then declined for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Immediately after the Minutes were released, the stock market experienced some whipsaw price action before settling into a slow decline. […] Ultimately, the main indices were able to climb off their post-FOMC Minutes lows by the closing bell. […] Only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors — materials (+0.7%) and consumer discretionary (+0.5%) — closed with a gain. Meanwhile, the real estate (-1.0%) and energy (-0.8%) sectors were the worst performers today. […] The 2-yr note yield fell three basis points today to 4.70% and the 10-yr note yield fell three basis points to 3.92%. Nasdaq Composite: +9.9% YTD Russell 2000: +7.6% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +7.2% YTD S&P 500: +4.0% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.3% YTD […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.0%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.1% Asia: Nikkei -1.3%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai -0.5% Commodities:  Crude Oil -2.40 @ 73.89 Nat Gas +0.10 @ 2.17 Gold -0.30 @ 1841.00 Silver -0.24 @ 21.63 Copper -0.02 @ 4.19