Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM; retraced more than 15 points  since 7:15 AM after advancing more than 30 since 3:15 AM
• The odds are for a choppy up day – watch for breaks above 4003.75 or a break below 3989.00 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Prelim Wholesale Inventories ( -0.4% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. 0.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • Goods Trade Balance ( -91.5B vs. -90.6B est.; prev. -89.7B) at 8:30 AM
  • HPI ( -0.1%B vs. -0.2% est.; prev. -0.1%) at 9:00 AM
  • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( 4.6% vs. 4.7% est.; prev. 6.8%) at 9:00 AM
  • Chicago PMI ( 45.6 est.; prev. 44.3) at 9:45 AM
  • CB Consumer Confidence ( 108.5 est.; prev. 107.1 ) at 10:00 AM
  • Richmond Manufacturing Index ( -5 est.; prev. -11) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3973.55, 3956.82, and 3949.34
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4000.47, 4018.05, and 4028.30
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4003.75, the high at 7:15 AM, and a break below 3989.00, the low at 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 3988.25, and the index closed at 3982.24 – a spread of about +6.00 points; the futures closed at 3988.00; the fair value is +0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00, Dow up by +37, and NASDAQ down by -3.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed
• European markets are mostly higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.947, up +23.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.957%, up +16.6 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.791%, up +25.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.844, down from -0.844
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.010, down from 0.074
• VIX
  • At 20.77 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.63 on February 22; low = 18.11 on February 15
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, February 27, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume.

Most major indices closed much lower than their opening levels. Main indices gapped up at the open and treaded higher for the first hour of trading. The next hour saw them decline to below the opening level. They traded sideways to down for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The 2-yr note yield, which hit 4.86% overnight, settled at 4.80%. The 10-yr note yield, which hit 3.96% overnight, settled at 3.93%. The main indices exhibited some fairly strong upside momentum in the early going, likely driven by some short-covering activity, that had the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq up 1.2%, 1.1%, and 1.5%, respectively, at their morning highs. That momentum quickly dissipated, though, and the market spent most of the session in a steady grind lower. The main indices ultimately settled off their lows for the day […] Shortly after the open, advancers led decliners by a nearly 5-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. By the close, advancers led decliners by a roughly 4-to-3 margin at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Most of the S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain led by consumer discretionary (+1.2%) and industrials (+0.8%). […] On the flip side, utilities (-0.8%) and health care (-0.3%) suffered the steepest losses. Nasdaq Composite: +9.6% YTD Russell 2000: +7.7% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +7.2% YTD S&P 500: +3.7% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.8% YTD […] Durable goods orders declined 4.5% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus -3.9%) following a downwardly revised 5.1% increase (from 5.6%) in December. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.7% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) following a downwardly revised 0.4% decline (from -0.1%) in December. […] Pending home sales rose 8.1% in January (Briefing.com consensus +1.0%) following a revised 1.1% increase in December (from +2.5%). […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +1.1%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +1.5% Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai -0.3% Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.70 @ 75.71 Nat Gas +0.34 @ 2.84 Gold +7.40 @ 1824.40 Silver -0.05 @ 20.78 Copper +0.05 @ 4.01